Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 6
CHART 3A
US imports from Asia fall for third straight month in November Containerized US imports from Asia, in laden TEUs, with year-over-year change
TEU volume
CHART 3B
Trans-Pacific vessel capacity increasing amid slowing volumes Asia – US West Coast container ship capacity, deployed and blanked, with planned
TEU capacity
1.5M
1M-500k 500k
-500k L Jul Jan 2025 Jul Jan 2026
CHART 3C
2,000,000
1,500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
0
Source: eeSea
500,000
Source: S & P Global
0 |
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Jan
L 2024
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Apr |
Jul |
Oct |
Jan 2025 |
Apr |
Jul |
Oct |
TEU
Year-over-year % change
Actual capacity Planned capacity Blanked capacity
60 %
40 %
100 % 20 %
0 %
-20 %
Year-over-year % change
© 2026 S & P Global
© 2026 S & P Global of 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global( Chart 3A). Keeping inventories lean in the face of wavering consumer sentiment, US retailers expect total import volumes to fall 10.3 % year over year in January, 8.5 % in February, 16.8 % in March and 10.9 % in April, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation( NRF). For the full year, S & P Global Ratings forecasts US container volumes will slip 2 % from 2025, and Moody’ s Ratings predicts volumes will fall between 0 % and 2 %. Unlike in past downturns, however, carriers have been slow on the trigger when it comes to blank sailings and other supply-side levers. Actual monthly vessel capacity from Asia to the US West Coast was static at around 1.2 million TEUs throughout the fourth quarter, and absent additional as-yet-unannounced blank sailings, carriers plan to deploy 1.3 million TEUs of vessel capacity in January, up 6.8 % from January 2025, according to data from maritime intelligence provider eeSea( Chart 3B).
Pricing power: Weak import volume forecasts and subdued container spot rates reflecting overcapacity are giving beneficial cargo owners( BCOs) confidence ahead of negotiations over annual trans-Pacific service contracts, which generally begin May 1. In fact, shippers are so confident that they see an opportunity to make headway on service-related issues such as schedule reliability and flexibility in handling contracted allocations. BCOs in 2026 want greater predictability of capacity deployments from carriers, so they will have visibility into their freight spend as they negotiate their service contracts. Sensing their stronger hand, shippers are in no rush to begin talks. The Gemini Cooperation of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd is having some success in building a base of cargo, pointing to how its 90 % schedule reliability allows shippers to reduce inventory time— and costs— by a couple weeks. Industry-wide container vessel on-time performance from Asia to the US hasn’ t exceeded 60 % since early 2023 and dipped as low as 17 % in September for East Coast routings, according to eeSea( Chart 3C). Carriers are also showing more willingness to contract directly with small and midsize shippers amid prospects of a year with zero growth. Forwarders and industry analysts expect pricing in service contracts negotiated this spring to resemble the rates in the current 2025 – 26 contracts, which for the largest retailers were in the range of $ 1,500 to $ 1,600 per FEU to the West Coast and about $ 1,000 higher to the East Coast. For midsize retailers, the negotiated price to the West Coast was about $ 1,800 to $ 1,900 per FEU. www. spglobal. com | www. joc. com © 2026 S & P Global