Quarterly Intelligence Q1 2026 | Page 7

Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 7

CHART 3D

Asia – USWC spot rates end 2025 down 60 % yoy Average container spot rates from Asia to US West Coast, pricing in long-term contracts and in long-term contracts signed in the last three months

USD per FEU

Trans-Atlantic spot rates dragging anchor in Q4 Container spot rates from North Europe to US East Coast, in USD per FEU

USD per FEU

$ 6,000

$ $ 10,000 4,000

$ 2,000

Source: Xeneta

CHART 3E

$ 2,500

$ 2,000

$ $ 10,000 1,500

$ 1,000

$ 500

Source: Xeneta

© 2026 S & P Global

L

© 2026 S & P Global

The next inflection: The strength— or weakness— of the traditional pre-Lunar New Year cargo bump will dictate trans-Pacific spot rate movements in the first quarter. The historical rush of shipping before Chinese factories shut or slow for two weeks of celebrations comes later this year, giving carriers a window to push up short-term pricing. In the final two months of 2025, container line general rate increases( GRIs) were somewhat successful, but spot rates as measured by various indices quickly eroded after each GRI. Average Asia – US West Coast spot rates of $ 1,669 per FEU in the last week of the year were down 60 % from 2024, according to Xeneta( Chart 3D). Outside of a brief fillip in June that coincided with a spike in spot rates, average long-term contract rates as measured by Xeneta followed a downward trajectory for much of the year and ended 2025 down 23.5 % from December 2024.

Flooded with capacity: Capacity on the trans- Atlantic increased 15 % in 2025 with carriers adding 159,400 TEUs to the trade lane, according to Alphaliner. One of the main contributors to the added tonnage was Mediterranean Shipping Co.( MSC), which converted two Asia – Europe loops into roundthe-world services, adding a Mediterranean – US East Coast loop. The new service replaced ships of 4,500 to 9,200 TEUs with vessels of 13,000 to 15,600 TEUs on the westbound Atlantic route. Despite an increase in blank sailings through November and December, spot rates have continued a decline that began in January. Average rates from North Europe to the US East Coast dropped to $ 765 per FEU in the week of Dec. 25, down 62.5 % from the same week in 2024 and the lowest since August 2023, according to Xeneta( Chart 3E). With a record amount of capacity planned for deployment on the trans-Atlantic in January and a slight decrease in blank sailings compared to December, there will be little to prevent rates declining even further.

IV. North America container port and interior flow

The bottom line: An early peak season for imports led to widespread volume declines that kept North American container ports and inland rail terminals free of congestion in the fourth quarter. Importers that frontloaded seasonal merchandise from Asia throughout the year looked to take advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings, helping US West Coast gateways hold onto market share gained in 2024. www. spglobal. com | www. joc. com © 2026 S & P Global