Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 5
CHART 2B
Trans-Atlantic air cargo pricing ends 2025 on a high note Air cargo spot rates from Frankfurt to Chicago, in USD per kg
USD per kg
$ 3.0
$ 1.8 2.5
$ 2.0
$ 1.5 L Jul Jan 2025 Jul
Source: Xeneta
Frankfurt to Chicago
© 2026 S & P Global from an average of 7.6 % in the first nine months of 2025, according to data from the International Air Transport Association( IATA). This deceleration was reflected in US manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of air cargo demand, as measured by the S & P Global purchasing managers’ index( PMI). November PMI survey results revealed weak sales and two consecutive months of warehouses filled with stock, combined with a strong increase in factory production. A sharp slowdown in the growth of new orders could put downward pressure on pricing, which has been steadily rising since early September. Average spot rates from Frankfurt to Chicago hit a 2025 high of $ 2.62 per kg in the first week of December but were down slightly from $ 2.78 per kg in 2024, according to Xeneta( Chart 2B).
A similar shift: The express air market continues to rebalance international air capacity as global trade flows shift away from traditional trans-Pacific lanes and toward intra-Asia and Asia – Europe corridors. FedEx, for example, reduced its trans-Pacific capacity by roughly 25 % and shifted some of those aircraft to Asia – Europe lanes during its fiscal second quarter, which ended Nov. 3, to take advantage of a favorable business-to-business( B2B) mix exceeding 75 % and strong load factors, key indicators of yield stability, CEO Rajesh Subramaniam said during a Dec. 18 earnings call. DHL Group CFO Melanie Kreis described intra-Asia and Asia – Europe as“ strong trade lanes for us in terms of profitability,” during the forwarder’ s third-quarter earnings presentation. Outside of those corridors, UPS is also seeing growth in express air freight revenue and average daily volumes in the Americas region.
III. North America ocean container trades
The bottom line: A widening supply-demand imbalance on the major container trades connecting North America with Asia and Europe is putting downward pressure on rates. A depressed trans- Pacific trade is emboldening cargo owners during trans-Pacific service contract negotiations.
Deep waters: After a tariff-induced early peak season, trans-Pacific ocean demand cratered in the fourth quarter, and despite forecasts calling for continued declines in 2026, carriers are increasing capacity in the Asia – North America trades. An 8.8 % year-overyear drop from September through November offset a 3.2 % January – July gain, dragging containerized US imports from Asia down 0.3 % in the first 11 months www. spglobal. com | www. joc. com © 2026 S & P Global