Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 4
II. Air cargo
The bottom line: The US eliminating its de minimis exemption for low-value goods has caused a fundamental shift in trans-Pacific air freight trade flows, with declining China – US traffic largely replaced by shipments from Southeast Asia. Forwarders are advising air freight shippers to factor particularly high demand for exports from Taiwan and Vietnam, and the resulting shift in capacity, into their early 2026 supply chain planning.
CHART 2A
Rising trans-Pacific air freight rates flatten in December Air cargo spot rates from Hong Kong to Chicago, in USD per kg
USD per kg
$ 7.0
$ 6.5
$ 6.0 $ 4.0 $ 5.5
$ 5.0
$ 4.5
$ 4.0 L Jul Jan 2025 Jul
Source: Xeneta
Hong Kong to Chicago
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Higher and higher: Vietnam and Thailand emerged as rapid growth markets for air cargo in the second half as shippers looked to mitigate their exposure to significantly higher tariffs on Chinese goods. Strong volumes through the fourth quarter, driven primarily by demand for electronics, semiconductors and other high-tech cargoes, pushed rates on direct flights from Southeast Asia to the US reached three-year highs of $ 7.50 per kg to West Coast airports and $ 8.50 per kg to the East Coast in early December, forwarders told the Journal of Commerce. Average pricing from Hong Kong to Chicago, meanwhile, reached $ 5.90 per kg in the first week of December, up from $ 5.86 per kg in the same week in 2024 but well below the recent peak of $ 6.66 per kg recorded in May, according to data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta( Chart 2A). Because airlines rapidly rerouted freighters to support the shift in trade flows— direct flights from Southeast Asia to the US are up 89 % since May 2, according to air freight analyst Rotate— forwarders were generally able to secure enough capacity throughout the fourth-quarter trans-Pacific air cargo peak season. However, most exports from Southeast Asia connect via transshipment hubs in Hong Kong, mainland China, South Korea and Japan, where they compete for space with high demand on the Asia – Europe and Asia – South America corridors. This will keep upward pressure on rates that are expected to peak in mid- January before easing towards the relatively late Lunar New Year that begins on Feb. 17. The air freight industry is banking on a continuation of the positive momentum seen in the second half around shipments of hyperscalers, electronics, semiconductors and industrial parts, but demand risks remain in the form of unpredictable US tariffs and falling ocean shipping rates. Multiple container lines offer sea-air services or expedited services on the trans-Pacific that compete directly with air freight but at significantly lower rates.
Weakening fundamentals: Trans-Atlantic air cargo demand continued an impressive year-over-year growth streak in the fourth quarter, with volumes rising for the 21st consecutive month in October. However, annual growth slowed to 2.6 % for the month www. spglobal. com | www. joc. com © 2026 S & P Global