Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 3
CHART 1A
US hiring growth weakens through H2 2026 Three-month rolling average change in US non-farm employment, in 000s
250
200
150 100 100
Inflation expected to moderate in 2026, with some exceptions Forecasted annual percentage consumer price inflation by region
8
6 L 4
2
0
50
0
-50 LJan 2024 Jul Jan 2025 Jul
Source: ADP, US Bureau of Labor Statistics( BLS)
CHART 1B
World US Canada Brazil Eurozone L UK Russia Mainland China Japan India
Notes: Data as of December 2025 Source: S & P Global Market Intelligence
ADP private sector
2025 2026
BLS total
© 2026 S & P Global
© 2026 S & P Global
I. Global economic, trade and risk outlook
The bottom line: The global economy is soldiering on despite unpredictable US tariffs and trade policy, with US GDP expansion expected to accelerate even as consumer price inflation picks up and job growth falters.
Exceptionally stronger: The US economy is forecast to expand at a faster pace this year— US GDP will rise 2.2 % in 2026 after growing just 2 % in 2025, according to Journal of Commerce parent company S & P Global— even as consumer confidence cools and the labor market erodes. Employment growth has been cooling since January, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics( BLS) and ADP( Chart 1A). BLS estimates roughly 30,000 jobs per month were added to non-farm payrolls from July through November, a significant slowdown from 155,000 monthly jobs in the first six months of 2025.
Cooling, not crashing: By comparison, China and the rest of the world are on a different trajectory, with the former’ s staggering export boom showing signs of waning. Tougher year-over-year comparisons and more trading barriers, particularly from Europe, will stall China’ s momentum, however; China’ s GDP growth is forecast to slow to 4.6 % this year from 5 % in 2024 and 2025. This, along with slowing economic activity in the eurozone, Japan and India, will pull global GDP expansion down to 2.7 % from 2.8 % in 2025. Developing economies are forecast to outperform larger emerging economies growth-wise partly due to lower exposure to US tariffs, according to S & P Global.
Costing a bit more: The US, China and India are the only major economies headed for higher inflation than in 2025, according to S & P Global economists. US consumer price inflation will tick up to 2.8 % from 2.7 % in 2025( Chart 1B). The sticky inflation is contributing to weakening US consumer sentiment, with one barometer falling near the lows recorded following President Donald Trump’ s onslaught of tariff announcements in April. The Conference Board’ s consumer confidence index dropped to 89.1 in December from 92.9 in November. www. spglobal. com | www. joc. com © 2026 S & P Global