Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 13
CHART 6C
Intermodal contract rates still sputtering despite volume growth Average contract rates for US truckload and intermodal rail, in USD per mile
USD per mile
$ 2.2
$ 2.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.8
$ 1.6
$ 1.4 Jan L 2024
Jul Jan 2025
Source: S & P Global
CHART 6D
JOC Contract Truckload Shipper Rates
Jul JOC Contract Intermodal Shipper Rates
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US intermodal trains running faster in Q4 Rolling four-week average of US Class I intermodal train speeds, in miles per hour
32
31
28.5 30
29 inflate the gap in pricing between domestic intermodal and truckload service in December, but savings measured by the ISI should return to their historical norm in January. Rates in annual intermodal contracts have been similarly sluggish, rising to $ 2.00 per mile in November from $ 1.97 in August and $ 1.96 in November 2024( Chart 6C). Conversations with intermodal marketing companies, shippers and analysts suggest that rates in early 2026 contracts are likely to increase on outbound lanes from California but remain flat elsewhere, pushing national average pricing up roughly 1 % year over year in the first quarter.
Weather watching: Intermodal service levels remained steady in the fourth quarter, with most metrics improving slightly from 2024 levels. Average intermodal train speeds among the US Class I railroads, for example, rose to 30.6 mph in October and November from 29.1 mph in the same 2024 period, according to data from the US Surface Transportation Board( STB)( Chart 6D). An average of just 3.8 trains per day were held en route because of an issue such as locomotive power or crew problems, down from 18.7 trains per day in 2024 and among the lowest readings since the STB began tracking this metric in 2017. Still, domestic intermodal shippers should keep one eye on the weather report in the coming months, as snowstorms and extreme low temperatures tend to be the primary cause of service disruption and delays in the first quarter.
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VII. Parcel / Last-mile
Source: Surface Transportation Board |
2023 2024 2025 |
© 2026 S & P Global |
The bottom line: Higher parcel rates and surcharges that go into effect in January, a seasonal US industrial production slowdown, and consumers recovering from 2025 end-ofyear holiday spending will leave FedEx and UPS seeking profitable parcels within strategic sectors while alternative last-mile carriers compete for business-to-consumer( B2C) shipments. |
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B2B rebound: FedEx and UPS will see a temporary spike in parcel volumes immediately following the 2025 holiday period thanks to returns, typically a profitable segment. Adobe Analytics forecasts return volumes will peak in the last week in December and remain elevated through the first two weeks of January. But both are still prioritizing B2B volumes. In their most recent earnings calls, UPS noted an increase in B2B volumes during the three months ending Sept. 3, while FedEx said 50 % of its revenue growth in the three months ending Nov. 30 came from B2B customers. |
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