Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 12
CHART 5C
LTL rates hovering above 2022 peak despite weak demand US long-haul less-than-truckload( LTL) producer price index( PPI)
270
260 210 250
240
230 L Jan 2024 Jul Jan 2025
Jul
LTL PPI
Notes: US BLS producer price indices are based on selling prices for trucking services
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, JOC analysis
CHART 6A
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Domestic intermodal snaps yoy growth streak in November North American domestic intermodal rail volume, 53-foot containers and trailers
800,000
750,000
600,000 700,000
650,000
600,000
CHART 6B
January April L July October L
Source: Intermodal Association of North America
2022 2023 2024 2025
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Truckload spot rate gains outpace intermodal pricing Average spot rates for US truckload and domestic intermodal rail, in USD per mile
USD per mile
$ 2.2
$ 2.0 $ 1.0 $ 1.8
$ 1.6
Jan L 2024 Jul
Jan 2025
Spot Truckload Shipper Rates
Source: Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index
Jul Spot Intermodal Shipper Rates
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Maintaining discipline: The US LTL sector still has roughly 10 % fewer terminals and doors than it did in 2020, and that capacity shortfall supported continued yield and pricing gains throughout 2025 despite lower shipment counts. Average LTL rates jumped 9.9 % year over year in September, the 23rd annual increase in 25 months, according to the most recently published reading of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics( BLS) long-distance LTL producer price index( PPI)( Chart 5C). Uneven volume growth among major carriers could indicate slight shifts in market share. Old Dominion Freight Line and XPO, for example, reported year-over-year declines in average daily volume of 9.4 % and 2.2 %, respectively, in November, while ArcBest and Saia saw shipments rise 3 % and 2.6 %. Shippers say LTL operators are prioritizing yield over volume again in 2026 contract negotiations and are willing to walk away from unprofitable freight. At the same time, some carriers are offering discounts on incremental volume added through bids, potentially reshuffling freight among networks to manage costs.
VI. Domestic intermodal rail
The bottom line: Domestic intermodal volumes continued to rise, and service remained strong in the fourth quarter, but carriers will likely struggle to secure significant rate increases in early 2026 contracts.
Past the peak: After a late peak season that lasted through October, the domestic intermodal market cooled at a faster pace than last year. Shipments of 53-foot domestic containers and trailers by rail slipped 1.1 % in November, the first year-over-year decline since March 2024, leaving year-to-date volumes 3.1 % higher on an annual basis, according to IANA( Chart 6A). However, despite the relatively strong volume growth— with fourth-quarter volumes projected to outperform 2024— and stable service levels, pricing continued to stagnate because many shippers only turn to intermodal only when truckload capacity is difficult to procure.
A long plateau: Short-term intermodal rates have risen slightly, but that’ s normal in the fourth quarter, when holiday merchandise is moving through supply chains to distribution centers and store shelves. Average spot intermodal rates climbed to $ 1.52 per mile in November, up from $ 1.49 in August and $ 1.47 in November 2024, according to data underpinning the Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index( ISI)( Chart 6B). A larger-than-normal seasonal truckload spot rate increase will temporarily www. spglobal. com | www. joc. com © 2026 S & P Global