Quarterly Intelligence Q1 2026 | Page 14

Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 14

CHART 7A

Ground parcel rates increase as express pricing slips TD Cowen / AFS Freight Parcel Index, a measure of changes in parcel rates compared to a January 2018 baseline

Index

40 %

30 % 30 %-30 20 %

10 %

0 %

Source: S & P Global © 2026 S & P Global

L

Up for bidding: Cost-conscious retailers and manufacturers will mitigate higher 2026 parcel rates and surcharges by negotiating with their current carriers and possibly bidding out their parcel volumes. After two quarters of muted parcel discounting activity, the average discount began to increase in the third quarter ahead of the holiday period, but prices began to climb again in November and December, according to the TD Cowen / AFS Freight Ground Parcel Index( Chart 7A). Carriers may not be willing to discount parcel rates so soon after January rate and surcharge implementations, which could lead shippers to bid out parcel volumes to other providers.

At the auction: The US Postal Service( USPS) aims to compete with alternative delivery carriers by offering last-mile capabilities that cover every US zip code, often at lower rates. The USPS plans to launch an auction in late January or early February 2026 for interested shippers to access more than 18,000 USPS delivery destination units across the country. The USPS will formalize accepted bids for the direct-to-consumer capability for its Parcel Select offering through a negotiated service agreement. It will notify winning bidders in the second quarter of next year, with service beginning in the third quarter of 2026. www. spglobal. com | www. joc. com © 2026 S & P Global