Quarterly Intelligence Q1 2026 | Page 11

Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 11

CHART 5A

US truckload spot rates rising faster than usual in Q4 Average US truckload spot rates, in USD per mile, excluding fuel surcharges

USD average rate per mile

$ 2.5

$ 1.0 2.0

$ 1.5

Source: DAT Solutions

CHART 5B

Dry Van Flatbed Refrigerated

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Large US truckload carriers slash fleets to record lows The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index( TCI), a measure of actual truck counts at a group of large publicly owned truckload carriers

95 %

90 %

100 85 %

80 %

75 %

Index

a shift in volume from less-than-truckload( LTL) to truckload. In December, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said US job growth is“ close to zero,” which impacts spending from lower-income consumers. Retailers echoed this on earnings calls, describing a K-shaped economy in which higherincome households continue spending on luxury items while lower-income consumers are forgoing discretionary spending and focusing on staples. New home construction was down 11.1 % year over year in August, the last month of data available from the US Census Bureau. Business inventories rose 1.2 % year over year in September. On the supply side, the impact of a growing federal crackdown on non-domiciled commercial driver’ s licenses( CDLs) and Englishlanguage proficiency( ELP) rules on trucking capacity remains unclear. US Department of Transportation audits in California, New York and Minnesota found most non-domiciled CDL violations stemmed from license expiration dates extending beyond visa validity, not expired or fraudulent visa documents. In those cases, that capacity will likely remain in the market as state motor vehicle departments are expected to update and reissue CDLs with expiration dates coinciding with the end of the visa. And while ELP exams have sidelined some drivers, out-of-service violations do not result in the immobilization of the truck, and anecdotal reports suggest most vehicles resume operating once the police leave the scene.

Ray of hope?: Seasonal increases in truckload volumes typically push short-term rates higher in December, but this year, pricing is rising at more than triple the normal pace. National average dry-van spot rates rose 23 cents from the end of November to $ 1.95 per mile in the week of Dec. 20, according to DAT Freight & Analytics( Chart 5A). By comparison, truckload spot rates increased by an average of just 7 cents during the same periods in 2022 – 24. Some operators and analysts attribute the unusually large rate spike to capacity reductions from small carrier exits tied to non-domiciled CDL and ELP enforcement, while others argue it was the result of Thanksgiving falling late in November and inclement weather in the Midwest and Northeast, implying that rates will revert to the long-term trend by late January. Truckload capacity remained abundant, despite large carriers trimming their fleets to the lowest level in two decades of Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index data( Chart 5B). Shippers that spoke with the Journal of Commerce expect rates in early 2026 contracts to rise between 1.5 % and 3 %, but Derek Leathers, CEO of truckload operator Werner Enterprises, warned that for incumbents looking to avoid the full bidding process, increases would likely be between 3 % and 4 %.

Source: Company reports, JOC analysis © 2026 S & P Global www. spglobal. com | www. joc. com © 2026 S & P Global