Quarterly Intelligence: Q1 2026 January | 10
CHART 4E
International rail volumes slide yoy in October – November Monthly North American international intermodal( IPI) loads
800,000
750,000
550,000 700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000 January April L July October
2023 2024 2025
Source: Gross Transportation Consulting, International Association of North America
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Coast has seen containerized import volumes since 2016 grow at an average annual rate of 8.7 % during the first quarter, according to PIERS. Much of the growth has been at Houston, which accounts for 70 % of the region’ s inbound containers and has seen 9.3 % average import annual growth for the first quarter during the same period. However, laden container imports through the Gulf Coast fell 11.4 % in November, the steepest year-over-year decline for a single month since November 2023, and the Port of Houston Authority forecasts just over 1 % growth in imports in 2026. Looking ahead to future growth, Houston is planning to open a new berth at its Bayport terminal in 2026, allowing it to handle up to five post-Panamax ships simultaneously. The berth opening will coincide with the completion of most of the widening of the Houston Ship Channel, which will make it easier to handle two-way ship traffic. In 2025, Mobile finished dredging its harbor to a 52-foot depth that allows it to handle super-post-Panamax ships. While Mobile remains a second-in call on the Gulf Coast after Houston, the deeper channel and increasing rail capacity may eventually position Mobile as a gateway for intermodal cargo destined for Southeast states.
A dependent market: Much like on the water, the tariff-induced early peak season for international intermodal rail ended with a thud in the fourth quarter. North American inland point intermodal( IPI) volumes fell 5.6 % year over year in October and November after rising 5.5 % in the first nine months of 2025, according to data from the Intermodal Association of North America( IANA)( Chart 4E). The outlook for international intermodal is inexorably linked to US imports from Asia, especially through the West Coast, where a higher proportion of cargo moves inland by rail.
V. US trucking
The bottom line: Carriers hope a larger-than-normal December surge in truckload spot rates will result in major price hikes in 2026 contracts, but shippers are skeptical and believe contract rates will rise in line with inflation.
Persistent imbalance: Although a fourth-quarter government shutdown delayed the release of some key trucking-relevant data, most underlying indicators point to a lackluster economy puttering along. Total North American surface freight volumes, as measured by the Cass Freight Shipments Index, continued a multi-year decline in the fourth quarter, falling on a year-over-year basis for the 34th consecutive month in November, with the index report noting www. spglobal. com | www. joc. com © 2026 S & P Global