May 5, 2025 | Page 15

Importers & Exporters Top 100 2025 Cover Story

After that final spurt of frontloading, tariffs and the loss of the de minimis exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong are expected to drag on demand.

Carriers have announced limited blank sailings on the trans-Atlantic trade in the coming weeks, with just 7,124 TEUs from North Europe to the US East and Gulf coasts scheduled for withdrawal in May, according to maritime data provider eeSea.

“ It seems as if carriers are pushing up capacity to cater for whatever frontloading may be needed by European exporters,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta.

A bubble about to burst

In 2024, containerized US imports increased by 15.3 %, reaching 27.7 million TEUs, while exports rose 0.9 % to 11.3 million TEUs, according to PIERS, also part of S & P Global. Manufactured goods, machinery and mechanical products and minerals rode atop the wave of imports, spiking 17.6 %, 14.8 % and 11.4 %, respectively.

Goods were still pouring into the US in the first three months of 2025, with container imports rising 9.2 % year over year, according to PIERS, but retailers say the import wave is collapsing as the race to beat the US tariffs ends. The Global Port Tracker report, produced by the National Retail Federation( NRF) and Hackett Associates, forecasts imports to plunge 20.5 % in May, 26.6 % in June, 27 % in July and 26.7 % in August.

“ We’ re going to see a lot of agriculture sourcing shift [ from China ] to other countries.”

“ At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in the April Global Port Tracker report.

The NRF and Hackett project inbound container shipments will fall 20 % in the second half from the year-ago period, which would result in a full-year decline of 15 % or more, approximately equal to last year’ s gain.

Exporters are feeling the effects of tariffs, too, especially those shipping US agricultural and forestry products. China, the largest US market for those products, levied a 125 % tariff on them in retaliation for new US tariffs.

Bookings for US exports to China for the week of April 15 were down 5.4 % from the prior week at 17,220 TEUs, according to maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet.

“ In [ the ] short term, I think we’ re going to see a lot of agriculture sourcing shift [ from China ] to other countries,” Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition( AgTC), told the Journal of Commerce.

A drop in the value of the US dollar— down about 5 % against other major world currencies after April’ s tariff announcements— could help exporters sell goods overseas, but retaliatory tariffs and backlash among foreign consumers will likely dampen any currency gains.

Such backlash has already occurred in Canada, where retailers have withdrawn American-made items from whiskey to diapers from their shelves.

Manufacturing losing momentum

Fewer US imports mean fewer intermodal containers moving inland to Chicago or Dallas and fewer truckload and LTL shipments.

But a continued decline in US factory output will have an even greater impact on demand for trucking and rail services, given that almost 60 % of US truck tonnage is tied to industrial output, according to US Census Bureau data.

North America manufacturing output fell at one of the steepest rates seen in the past two years in March,

US factory production growth slows in March

Seasonally-adjusted world, US, Asia, China and EU manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Indexes( PMIs); a reading of 50 or higher indicates growth

PMI

5656 54 52 30 50 48 46 44 42

L Jul Jan 2024 Jul

Jan 2025 Feb, 2025

Source: S & P Global

US truckload spot rates still stuck in neutral

National US average broker-to-shipper spot truckload rates, in USD per mile

$ 4.0

$ 3.5 $ 1.5 $ 3.0

$ 2.5

$ 1.6 $ 2.0

L 2022 2023

202424 Apr, 2024

Source: Journal of Commerce

World US Asia China EU

Shipper Spot Rate( Weighted) Shipper Spot Rate( Unweighted)