2025 Top 100 Importers & Exporters Cover Story
according to S & P Global, with broad-based production losses in the US, Canada and Mexico. The S & P Global US manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index( PMI) dropped to 50.2 in March from 52.7 in February and 51.2 in January.
Optimism surrounding the Trump administration and the need to“ front run” tariffs buoyed manufacturers in the first two months of the year, but“ cracks are now starting to appear,” S & P Global said in its PMI release in April.
The longer trade disputes last, the more US manufacturers will have difficulty finding specific components, including some that are critical to production, said Michael Regan, chief relationship officer at logistics company and consultant TranzAct Technologies, citing Chinese-made magnets used in automotive transmissions as an example.
“ These are‘ dirty magnets’ produced from rare earth metals, and China is limiting their export,” Regan told the Journal of Commerce in mid-April.“ A company I know has enough inventory to last only through July.”
Resilient, but worried
US consumer spending has been relatively steadfast so far this year, supported by continued wage increases and low unemployment. Total retail sales grew 1.4 % month over month in March, the biggest monthly increase since January 2023. Excluding sales of cars and trucks and automotive parts, retail sales only rose 0.5 % from February, according to US Census Bureau data.
But those results fly in the face of consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 11 % sequentially in April, its fourth consecutive monthly decline. The Conference Board’ s monthly index of consumer expectations dropped 9.6 points in March to 65.2, its lowest level in 12 years and far below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.
Unlike in 2024, the consumer“ is not feeling great,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement in mid- April, but the NRF still expects US retail sales to rise this year with or without tariffs.
The retailers’ association forecasts retail sales will grow between 2.7 % and 3.7 % year over year to between $ 5.42 trillion and $ 5.48 trillion.
“ It seems as if carriers are pushing up capacity to cater for whatever frontloading may be needed by European exporters.”
What’ s more, there’ s no expectation the disputes will end in the near future, and even if they do, damage has already been done that will take time to repair.
The Trump administration’ s goals, whether achievable or not, are part of a long-term strategy that is likely to survive weekly or even daily policy flips.
As long as tariff uncertainty and trade wars linger, however, it will be more difficult to find a catalyst that will increase freight demand in the US. That’ s pushing hopes for a freight recovery farther into 2026.
Journal of Commerce editors Ari Ashe, Greg Knowler, Bill Mongelluzzo, and Laura Robb and Research Analyst Cathy Morrow Roberson contributed to this report.
email: bill. cassidy @ spglobal. com
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16 Journal of Commerce | May 5, 2025 www. joc. com