2025 Top 100 Importers & Exporters Cover Story
S & P Global now expects US GDP to grow just 1.3 % in 2025 and 1.5 % in 2026. Shutterstock. com
The question isn’ t whether trucking volumes will decline in the second quarter or second half of 2025, but by how much. That may trigger a broader loss of truck capacity.
Blanking and canceling
On the seas, the Trump administration’ s multi-front trade war has already led to a drop in shipments, compounding the disruption caused by attacks in the Red Sea, where the US is escalating attacks on Houthis in Yemen.
Ocean freight rates have fallen steeply in the first four months of 2025. Average spot pricing from Asia to the US West Coast of $ 2,050 per FEU in the week of April 18 was down 61 % from the beginning of the year and 74.8 % from its most recent peak in July 2024, according to Platts, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global. Asia – US East Coast spot rates have sunk 53.7 % since Jan. 1 and 69.4 % from last summer to $ 3,100 per FEU. A slew of booking cancellations by US importers is leading ocean carriers to blank more voyages in the eastbound trans-Pacific. Some ships are leaving China halfempty. The scale-back in US-bound imports from China is affecting the entire ocean carrier industry.
“ People are canceling and putting cargo [ from ] China on pause,” a source at a trans-Pacific carrier who asked not to be identified told the Journal of Commerce in April.
The broad pause in bookings and orders extends beyond China to other sourcing origins. Amazon, for example, has canceled orders of goods ranging from beach chairs and scooters to air conditioners from Vietnam and Thailand, as well as China, according to a report from Bloomberg.
Retailer Five Below paused orders from China in April as those tariffs escalated, CFO Kristy Chipman told analysts during a March 19 call.
“ The breadth and magnitude of the tariffs are significant given that approximately 60 % of our total cost of goods are imported from China, either directly or through our domestic vendors,” Chipman said.
Trans-Pacific air cargo traffic, meanwhile, is expected to increase through May 2 as importers rush to beat the end of the exclusion from tariffs for low-value imports.
Volatile trans-Pacific spot rates reflect market uncertainty
Container spot rates from North Asia to US West and East coasts, in USD per FEU
USD per FEU
$ 10,000
$ 8,000
$ $ 10,000 6,000
$ 4,000
$ 2,000
$ 0
Source: Platts, S & P Global
L Jul Jan 2024 Jul Jan 2025
North Asia to US East Coast North Asia to US West Coast
© 2025 S & P Global
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14 Journal of Commerce | May 5, 2025 www. joc. com