Cover Story
‘ It all depends...’
Robust Asia – Europe demand emerges as peak begins
By Greg Knowler
Strong demand on Asia-Europe continues to hold up short-term rates, as does capacity shifted from the trade to the trans-Pacific following the May 12 pause on sky-high US tariffs on Chinese goods.
But all eyes are on another date: July 9, the end of the 90-day pause on the so-called reciprocal tariffs the Trump administration levied on its non-China trading partners. Forwarders believe what happens after that will determine the level of demand on Asia-Europe routes in the second half of the year.
Burkhard Eling, CEO of German forwarder Dachser, said shippers and forwarders were struggling to forecast demand for the rest of the year with the tariffs impacting trade lanes outside the trans-Pacific.
“ It all depends on what will happen on July 9,” Eling told the Journal of Commerce in an interview.“ Everyone is preparing for this date and that will affect a lot of shipments in the second half, but predicting what will happen is nearly impossible.”
A Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson said the Asia – Europe peak season has already started, with solid demand on the westbound trade lane. The peak shipping period on the trade typically runs from June through China’ s“ Golden Week” in the first week of October.
“ Demand is stronger on the Med trades, as capacity has been pulled out by the competition,” the spokesperson told the Journal of Commerce. But he conceded that forward visibility was challenging because of the unpredictability in the market.
Carriers to deploy record Asia – Europe capacity in July
Asia – North Europe container ship capacity, deployed and blanked, with forecast
TEU capacity
1M
-400k 500k
0
-471.9k-500k
L Jan 2024 Jul Nov, 2023 Jan 2025 Jul
Notes: As of June 24, 2025 Source: eeSea
Actual capacity Expected capacity Blanked capacity
© 2025 S & P Global
L
“ If somebody says he knows there will be a peak season, I would love to have his crystal ball.”
Eling also noted the uncertainty moving forward.“ If somebody says he knows there will be a peak season, I would love to have his crystal ball,” he said.“ I wouldn’ t say the classic seasonality is gone, but with all the tariffs and the complications, I don’ t expect a big season in the second half.”
Asia – Europe spot rates rising from 18-month low
Container spot rates from Asia to N. Europe and Mediterranean, in USD per FEU
USD per FEU
$ 10,000
$ 8,000
$ $ 10,000 6,000
$ 4,000
$ 2,000
$ 0 LJul Jan 2024
Jul Jan 2025
North Asia to UK Continent North Asia to Mediterranean
L
Record deployment
According to the latest available data from Container Trades Statistics( CTS), westbound Asia – Europe volumes jumped 9 % year over year to just over 6.1 million TEUs in the first four months of 2025, with shipments to North Europe rising 6.6 % and Mediterranean volumes surging 12.1 %.
Data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows the four-week rolling average capacity offered on Asia-Europe reached a record 346,000 TEUs on June 5, higher than at any point during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: Platts, S & P Global © 2025 S & P Global
“ But as the extra loaders that brought
12 Journal of Commerce | July 7, 2025 www. joc. com