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Weiming Xie / Shutterstock. com an all-time high level of capacity to the Asia-North Europe trade are now needed back on the trans-Pacific, the shortterm contracts are rising in early and mid-June,” Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, told the Journal of Commerce.
And despite increasing blank sailings on the Asia-Europe trade— cutting 85,727 TEUs via blanks in July compared with 79,474 TEUs in June— carriers will still deploy a record 1.16 million TEUs for the month, up 53 % from February and 12.8 % from July 2024, according to data from visibility provider eeSea.
Despite being awash with capacity, rates are rising because of the robust demand combined with ships exiting to the trans-Pacific and capacity still being absorbed by the ongoing diversions around southern Africa.
Average spot pricing from Asia to North Europe reached $ 3,060 per FEU in the week of June 20, up from an 18-month low of $ 1,600 per FEU just five weeks prior, according to Platts, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global. Asia – Mediterranean rates rose to $ 4,660 per FEU from $ 2,700 per FEU during the same period.
“ A lot of carriers are moving their tonnage back to the trans-Pacific trade and the overcapacity we had is diminishing while booking strength is
increasing,” said Tom Turner, head of ocean for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Toll Group.
Confident carriers
The supply-demand dynamics are giving carriers the confidence to introduce rate increases to the market, Turner noted. Following the June 1 freightall-kinds( FAK) increases that led to a sharp rise in rates, some ocean carriers announced rate hikes and peak season surcharges for June 15.
“ We are in a tight enough market that the carriers will be able to defend some of the increases.”
“ The carriers might be overly ambitious and shooting a bit higher than what they’ re realistically hoping to achieve, but at the same time, I wouldn’ t feel comfortable advising a customer that the rates are going to go down,” Turner said.“ We are in a tight enough market to say that the carriers will be able to defend some of the increases.”
Matthias Hansen, senior vice president of global ocean freight at France-based forwarder Geodis, also pointed to carriers shifting tonnage back to the trans-Pacific to take advantage of the high rates from China to the US.
“ There is something like 28 extra loaders moving out of Asia – Europe, and I expect a shortage of equipment will emerge because there is such a big pull towards the US,” he told the Journal of Commerce in early June.
Hansen said although he was surprised at the strength of the Asia-Europe demand, he expects the strong volume will continue for“ at least another two to three months.”
Eling attributed part of the current rising demand to the fact that when the US imposed 145 % tariffs on China and shippers paused orders, Chinese producers quickly looked for new markets and Asia-Europe was the biggest one. That led to rising demand on the trade that continued even after the mid-May pause.
“ When you consider [ 145 %] tariffs from the US, Chinese producers need to find different markets to place their goods, and of course, Europe is a big market,” he said.“ This is the natural consequence of the tariffs that we are seeing in the demand.”
email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com www. joc. com July 7, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 13