Cover Story it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season,” Hackett said.“ If higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”
The updated forecast brings the GPT projection for the first half to 12.54 million TEUs, up 3.4 % from expectations published in May and 3.7 % higher than first-half 2024 volumes. Actual containerized imports from Asia grew 8.4 % year over year in the first five months of 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global.
‘ On today, off tomorrow’
The whiplash from the introduction and sudden suspension of steeper US tariffs has forced those who manage supply chains to shrink planning horizons, increase inventory carrying costs and put strategic investment on hold, according to Abe Eshkenazi, CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management.
“ A lot of the strategic investments and a lot of the capital investments have been put on hold,” Eshkenazi told the Journal of Commerce in an interview during the CHAINge Europe supply chain conference in mid-June.
“ It’ s hard to convince a CEO to spend $ 2 billion on a new plant when he doesn’ t know if you’ re going to manufacture for local markets or for a global marketplace,” he added.“ As a [ beneficial cargo owner ], this is going to be the life that you lead over the next few years.”
Eshkenazi emphasized that the disruption caused by tariffs is not a supply-and-demand issue, which supply chains are well-suited to handle, but rather a pricing issue.
“ That is a big problem for us because it changes constantly,” he said.“ How much is the tariff? When is it going to be applied? Is it consistent? We are accustomed to disruption, but more in the form of long-term issues, as opposed to something that’ s on today, off tomorrow, or 20 % now, then 50 % or 100 %.”
The supply chain director for a global shipper who asked not to be identified said the company has taken“ almost three years to go through the additional inventory built up to cope with supply chain disruptions,
and now we have to bring in buffer stocks again to try to manage the risk.”
A second importer said if the intention of the Trump administration’ s tariffs was to bring manufacturing back to the US,“ no one would buy our products because they would be too expensive.”
Eshkenazi noted that companies in the US are looking at diversifying both suppliers and manufacturing facilities, but much of the investment that is required to make those changes is on pause.
“ Companies are not developing plants that sit idle, or having staff sit idle at home waiting to be actuated,” he said.“ No investment is going to be done in parallel activities just in case.”
“ The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season.”
www. joc. com July 7, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 11