Cover Story

Trans-Pacific shippers, carriers unable to plan ahead as tariff deadlines approach

By JOC Staff

Every peak shipping period ahead of the US winter holiday shopping season is unique, but this one is even more so, due to uncertainty about US tariffs on goods from Europe to China.

Although the current deluge of imports, driven by a temporary pause in higher US tariffs, is already losing staying power, US retailers are planning strong volumes through August, according to the June Global Port Tracker( GPT) report from the National Retail Federation( NRF) and Hackett Associates. Forwarders and carriers say a drop in bookings Asia and falling container spot rates in recent weeks could quickly reverse if US importers get clarity on tariffs on China.

“ It’ s quite the turnaround,” said Robert Khachatryan, CEO of forwarder Freight Right Global Logistics.“ What’ s driving this? [ Declining ] demand primarily.”

Whether the latest import wave has truly crested and begun to recede is uncertain. While some carriers believe there will be another surge in demand when President Donald Trump and his administration finally decide the

Trans-Pacific imports snap 19-month yoy growth streak in May

Containerized US imports from Asia, in laden TEUs, with year-over-year change

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Source: S & P Global

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© 2025 S & P Global fate of the tariffs on China and other countries in July and August, forwarders don’ t see that happening.

“ I don’ t expect it to increase again,” said a forwarder executive who asked not to be identified.“ This is all speculation. Anything could happen, but the trend doesn’ t show for that.”

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the trans-Pacific peak season typically ran from August through October. But in the year of tariffs, nothing is typical.

Some market participants say the recent increase in volumes could be the start of an early peak season that still has room to run. If that scenario sounds familiar, it’ s because last year’ s peak played out in a similar fashion— albeit for different reasons— beginning in June and lasting straight through December.

One carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce he does not believe rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific are inevitably headed lower in the coming weeks.

“ Shippers are in a‘ wait and see’ mode on tariffs and seeking clarity on Trump’ s declaration of a deal with China bringing tariffs to 55 % from 30 % but still far less steep than the now-paused 145 % rate, meaning there might be another [ demand ] surge,” the executive said.

China’ s tariffs on US imports remain at 10 %. As of late June, no formal agreement had been signed between China and the United States.

“ What’ s driving this? [ Declining ] demand primarily.”

In the meantime, US retailers are upping their peak season import forecasts. Cargo landing at the country’ s ports in July will be 20 % higher than the May GPT forecast. A pause on higher tariffs on most of the US’ trading partners is in effect until July 9, while the pause on the 145 % tariff on imports from China is due to expire Aug. 14.

The GPT’ s updated forecast calls for total US imports to reach 2.13 million TEUs in July, up 20.3 % from the previous GPT but still well below the 2.32 million TEUs brought in during July 2024, and 1.98 million TEUs in August, up 8.8 % from May’ s forecast. The NRF also upgraded its projections for May and June, with respective volumes expected to come in 5.5 % and 17.5 % higher than previously forecast.“[ Shippers ] are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August,” Jonathan Gold, vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the NRF, said in the June 9 GPT report.

However, retailers slightly downgraded their expectations for September to 1.78 million TEUs, which would also be a 21.6 % drop from the same month last year. And in its initial forecast for October, the GPT projected imports would tumble nearly 20 % year-over-year to 1.8 million TEUs.

“ The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making

10 Journal of Commerce | July 7, 2025 www. joc. com