Surface Transportation independent economist who previously worked for Convoy, Glassdoor and Zillow, said on Jones’ podcast.

Potential catalysts

Despite the lackluster macroeconomic picture, there are unknowns that could quickly shock the market and shift pricing power back to carriers.

The US Supreme Court must rule on whether President Donald Trump had the authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to apply reciprocal tariffs across dozens of trading partners last year. Exactly when the Court will publish its decision is still unknown, but if it rules against Trump, and the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, it could create a one-two punch that shocks the markets.

“ There will be a window which I think shippers will just force as much they can through the pipe before the administration finds another way to get tariffs in place,” Terrazas said.“ If the pipe opens, even if it’ s for just two or three months, I think you’ ll see just an absolute bonanza... It’ ll be absolute and total hell on all [ shipper ] transportation managers.”

If the Court rules in Trump’ s favor, however, the administration has floated the idea of issuing tariff rebate checks of up to $ 2,000 to US citizens. If people receive that money, it could induce the demand growth needed to kickstart a freight recovery, according to Terrazas and Miller.

There is also the battle between the US Department of Transportation( USDOT) and several states over rescinding non-domiciled commercial driver’ s licenses( CDLs) to asylum seekers and other visa holders that were previously qualified.

California announced a 60-day extension on canceling the non-domiciled CDLs, kicking the issue to March, while the USDOT has threatened to withhold federal funds over that decision.

It is unclear what the impact on both truckload and port drayage would be if California canceled as many as 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs.

“ I think vulnerability to sustained disruption is a major issue,” Spencer said on the webcast.“ Use this past little stretch in December as a good indicator of what to expect because there are going to be periods of volatility.”

email: ari. ashe @ spglobal. com

US truckload rates spike amid weather disruption, holiday returns

National US average shipper-paid spot truckload rates, in USD per mile

$ 3.7 $ 3.5

$ 3.0 $ 1.5

$ 2.5

$ 2.0

$ 1.5 L Jan, 2022 2022 2023 2024 2025

Shipper Spot Rate( Weighted) Shipper Spot Rate( Unweighted)

Source: Journal of Commerce analysis of data from Cargo Chief, DAT, Loadsmart, survey of 3PLs

© 2026 S & P Global

L

Impact of non-domiciled CDL enforcement splits US trucking sector

By Ari Ashe

The trucking industry differs on the impact of stricter federal rules on immigrants driving in the US, with one side arguing that a crackdown will move the needle on subdued pricing and the other warning that only a demand rebound will end the three-year freight slump.

The US Department of Transportation( USDOT) estimates there are about 200,000 holders of non-domiciled commercial driver’ s licenses( CDLs), most of whom would lose eligibility under a proposed rule that would bar certain immigrants, including asylum seekers, from operating commercial vehicles. No one has confirmed the number in the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’ s( FMCSA) emergency interim rule; states issue CDLs, not the federal government.

“ There is a lack of clarity on where the 200,000 figure comes from in the first place,” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management for Michigan State University, told the Journal of Commerce.

Under USDOT’ s proposal, only drivers with H-2A, H-2B or E-2 visas would be permitted to retain non-domiciled CDLs. But the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has placed the rule on hold indefinitely.

Even so, some industry executives argue that enforcement activity— rather than the rule itself— could have a more immediate effect on trucking capacity.

Thom Albrecht, chief revenue officer of insurer Reliance Partners, said up to 15 % of current US truckload capacity may be tied to illegitimate operations, including cargo theft and carriers operating outside of US rules and regulations. Albrecht emphasized that the figure is an estimate based on publicly available CDL data, not an exact count.

“ That doesn’ t mean we have 15 % excess capacity. I would www. joc. com February 2, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 31