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Winter weather increased the strength of a seasonal truckload rate uptick, but demand remains relatively weak. Shutterstock. com

US truckload pricing remains unsettled despite red-hot December

By Ari Ashe

The newfound strength in US truckload pricing could become a turning point if it lasts until mid-February, long enough that shippers could see it in their contracts, but there are also plenty of hazards that could cause the freight recession to linger into a fourth year, analysts warn.

National average truckload spot rates paid by shippers on lanes of at least 250 miles were largely tepid between February and November, but in December shot up 19 cents to $ 2.46 per mile, including fuel, which was also an 18 cent year-over-year jump, according to a Journal of Commerce analysis of data from DAT Freight and Analytics and managed transportation provider Loadsmart. By comparison, shipper-paid spot rates rose 8 cents sequentially in December 2024 and 2 cents in 2023.

“ A lot of [ the ] rate increase in December was weather driven... Rates are going to come back down.”

“ I do think a lot of [ the ] rate increase in December was weather driven... winter weather hitting the Midwest and Northeast,” David Spencer, VP of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, said in early January on the Meet Me for Coffee podcast hosted by Samantha Jones.“ Rates are going to come back down. I think it’ s a short-lived season volatility.”

Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said the key month to watch is February. Rates tend to remain slightly elevated in January because of the reverse logistics involved in returning Christmas gifts. But if rates remain elevated through February— which Miller doesn’ t believe will happen— then pricing power could shift to the carriers.

“ We’ re entering this year, from a manufacturing standpoint, in a worse position today than we were entering last year,” Miller said on the podcast.

A shipper who asked not to be identified told the Journal of Commerce that his contract truckload carriers have not broached the subject of raising contract rates based off the December spot market surge.

Data picture cloudy

Economists are working through the backlog of data that accumulated during the 43-day government shutdown in October and November.

“ The hard part is that we’ re still waiting for a lot of government data that we’ d love to have,” Miller said.“ New single family home permits were down 10 % year over year last August, but that feels like ancient history.”

The S & P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was in expansion territory in December at 51.8, but the outlook was much more cautious.

“ Something of a Wile E. Coyote scenario has developed, whereby— just like the cartoon character continues to run despite chasing the roadrunner off a cliff— factories are continuing to produce goods despite suffering a drop in orders,” wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S & P Global Market Intelligence.

The gap between production and new orders was the widest since the Great Recession of 2008 – 09, indicating“ current factory production levels are clearly unsustainable,” Williamson wrote. That’ s relevant because industrial freight powers the trucks and railroads, hauling raw materials and intermediate products used to make durable and non-durable consumer products.

There are other signs that could cool the December euphoria of carriers, including the federal government beginning to garnish the wages of those who are delinquent on their student loans, a practice that was halted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“ Holiday shopping is often on credit cards, and so when we start seeing wage garnishments to pay student loans, it’ s going to create real strain on some consumers,” Aaron Terrazas, an

30 Journal of Commerce | February 2, 2026 www. joc. com