Surface Transportation
USDOT estimates up to 200,000 holders of non-domiciled CDLs could lose eligibility under its proposed rule. Shutterstock. com suggest it’ s probably 2 % to 3 %. It would not take a whole lot for the industry to start feeling better,” he said during a December webinar hosted by Deutsche Bank.“ There have been so many bad actors let into this industry over the last few years. That’ s the single-biggest deterrent for this industry to get healthy.”
Ryan Joyce, CEO of cargo security firm Genlogs, said his company found nearly 1,000 Mexican trucking companies that are legally allowed to cross the border with international freight, but also operating far beyond the permitted zone inside the US. Joyce said many of those carriers are engaging in cabotage, illegally hauling a domestic load between two US locations after legally delivering an international load.
“ There have been so many bad actors let into this industry.”
“ The top violator, for example, was observed hundreds of times operating as far north as Minnesota, Wisconsin and New York,” Joyce said on the Deutsche Bank webinar.
He also said the non-domiciled CDL problem is tied to cargo theft, with some unsafe carriers shutting down one day, paying cash to obtain a new motor carrier number and then reopening the next day, often referred to as“ chameleon carriers.”
Albrecht and Joyce are among those who expect a swift market response as insurers and USDOT increase scrutiny of illegitimate operations.
“ I follow certain threads of truck drivers online, and there are discussions that a lot of these non-domiciled CDLs coming up for renewal won’ t be renewed,” Albrecht said on the webinar.“ A lot of them have said that post-Christmas, that’ s it for them. That this is the last hurrah.”
Skepticism abounds
Others, however, argue that the non-domiciled CDL and cabotage crackdowns will not produce a sudden spike in trucking rates.
In audits conducted of Minnesota and New York, most of the violations cited by USDOT involved otherwise properly issued non-domiciled CDLs in which the license expiration date extended beyond the driver’ s employment authorization, rather than wholesale ineligibility.
And even when drivers with a valid non-domiciled CDL fail an English-language proficiency exam, many continue operating once highway patrol leaves the scene. Police cannot immobilize the vehicle because it is the driver, not the truck, who is taken out of service.
“ The driver will just wait a little bit and once the officer leaves, he’ ll just drive off as if nothing happened,” said Cliff Bates, former owner of Capital City Trucking, a trucking company that went out of business within the last two years.“ Even when the driver is dropped off at the next exit, the minute the patrol leaves, he’ s walking back down the highway to the truck again.”
While Bates agrees that reckless driving by some non-domiciled CDL holders is a major problem, he questions how quickly the Trump administration can act.
“ I think they’ re going to cut off the spigot for new CDLs, but I question the assumption that this administration will act swiftly with midterms coming in less than a year,” Bates told the Journal of Commerce. He said rapid enforcement could raise rates and, by extension, consumer prices.
Still, broader macroeconomic factors may limit how much enforcement alone can shift the market. Slashing capacity does not address weak US manufacturing data that has softened truckload demand, according to Miller. He noted, for example, that single-family building permits had fallen 10 % from 2024 levels, as of the last update before the US government shutdown, and that fracking activity isn’ t going to rebound with crude oil at current prices.
“ There are also individuals out there with the requisite background who could re-enter the [ trucking ] industry rather quickly if conditions significantly improve from a pricing standpoint, which would blunt any loss of non-domiciled capacity,” Miller said.
email: ari. ashe @ spglobal. com
32 Journal of Commerce | February 2, 2026 www. joc. com