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Retailers have noted the change in consumers. Home Depot, for example, cited concerns over affordability and jobs, lowering its outlook for the rest of its fiscal 2025 year, which ends in January.
“ The economic uncertainty continues, largely now due to living costs,” Ted Decker, the chair, president and CEO of the home improvement retailer, said during a Nov. 18 third-quarter earnings call.“ Affordability is a word that’ s being used a lot. Layoffs, increased job concerns, etc. So that’ s why we don’ t see an uptick in that underlying storm-adjusted demand in the business.”
It’ s no wonder retailers are making sure they have just enough product on hand. US inventory-to-retail sales ratios for retailers have hovered between 1.28 and 1.32, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, suggesting that despite the frontloading of imports in the first half of the year, stocks remain lean. Retailers appear to be extending that strategy into the new year; the GPT report forecasts imports will fall 12.2 % year over year to 5.62 million TEUs in the first quarter of 2026.
‘ A bit of a freefall’
Laden US imports this year peaked in July at 2.6 million TEUs, before sliding 4.6 % year over year between August and October, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global.
But it’ s volumes from Asia that have seen the worst of the drop-off, with inbound shipments, including those from India, falling 5.6 % in August – October, according to PIERS. Facing a US tariff rate of roughly 47 %, laden imports from China plunged 16.7 % year over year in the same threemonth period.
US retailers keeping stocks lean amid economic uncertainty
Ratio of end-of-month US retail, manufacturing, and wholesale inventories to monthly sales; a ratio of 2.5 indicates enough stock to cover 2.5 months of sales
1.6
1.5 1.0
1.4
1.3 1.3
L
L Oct Jan 2024 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2025 Apr Jul, 2025 Jul
Source: US Census Bureau
Retail Manufacturing Wholesale
© 2025 S & P Global
The weakening Asia trade as of mid-November had dragged so-called bullet rates— prices quoted for specific voyages— from Asia to the US West Coast to below $ 1,400 per FEU. Spot rates to the West Coast, as measured by various indices, are down 30 % to 60 % year over year, depending on the index and trade lane.
Ocean carriers’ biweekly attempts to impose general rate increases have failed, lifting pricing for a just few days before they continue their descent. In 10 of 12 weeks from the end of July through mid-October, trans-Pacific spot rates even fell below the average long-term service contract rate of roughly $ 1,600 per FEU, according to rate benchmarking firm Xeneta.
www. joc. com December 1, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 13