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Economic uncertainty is weighing on consumer sentiment and, in turn, imports. Shutterstock. com
“ Prices, again, are just in a bit of a freefall,” Sanjay Tejwani, CEO of consulting firm 365 Logistics, told the Journal of Commerce. Ocean carriers“ have done what they can,” using blank sailings and shifting vessels between trades to try to match demand,“ but it’ s too little, too late.”
“ The planned vessel departures in the coming months are not all going to happen.”
Yet, there hasn’ t been a notable scramble among cargo owners to reopen service contracts, which typically expire at the end of April. Forwarders have also been increasingly blending spot and contract rates for cargo owners to find a better medium for the market to offer customers.
Asia – USWC spot rates hovering near long-term contract pricing
Average container spot rates from Asia to US West Coast, pricing in long-term contracts and in long-term contracts signed in the last three months
USD per FEU
$ 7,898
$ 6,000
$ $ 10,000 4,000
$ 2,000
$ 0 LJan 2024
Jul Jan 2025
Jul
Nov, 2025 Short-term rates Contract rates signed in last three months Contract rates
L
“ We’ ve not seen any big movements on contracts being open now, which since the contracts have been trending down during Q3, and it was not very timely for people to do when they know they have the negotiation coming soon and as long as things are moving their way,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said during the company’ s third-quarter earnings call Nov. 6, adding that customers have generally been meeting their allocated contract volumes.
Despite the lower spot rates and weaker outlook, container lines haven’ t pulled services and have blanked capacity at levels like in past years. In fact, ocean carriers plan to add more capacity from Asia to the US in December and January, according to maritime intelligence provider eeSea.
A coming storm?
The trans-Atlantic ocean trade has been spared so far from the US tariffs, which total roughly 15 % for imports from the EU, with combined volumes from North Europe and the Mediterranean slipping just 0.3 % year over year in the three months ending in October. Planned capacity injections, however, will keep pressure on declining rates to the point that aggressive sailing cancelations are nearly inevitable, according to Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea- Intelligence Maritime Analysis.
“ This impending crash is therefore a clear indication to shippers that they should prepare themselves, that the planned vessel departures in the coming months are not all going to happen,” Murphy warned.
Container lines plan to inject the most capacity in the Mediterranean leg; eeSea data shows 34,000 TEUs set to be added to the trade by February. In December, carriers plan to put nearly 250,000 TEUs of capacity on the water.
But container spot rates from Europe to the US have yet to fall significantly as of mid-November, according to various indices. Spot rates from Rotterdam to New York of $ 1,633 per FEU in early November were down 38.6 % from a year ago, according to the World Container Index assessed by Drewry.
Source: Xeneta © 2025 S & P Global
Associate Editor Laura Robb contributed to this story.
14 Journal of Commerce | December 1, 2025 www. joc. com