Cover Story
Trans-Pacific imports fall in 4 of 6 months through October
Containerized US imports from Asia, in laden TEUs, with year-over-year change
TEU volume
60 %
|
2,000,000
,
1,896,825
|
50 % |
40 % |
1,500,000 |
1,000,000 |
100 % |
20 % |
1,000,000 |
500,000 |
0 % |
0 |
-20% |
|
L
Jan 2024
|
Apr |
Jul |
Oct |
Jan 2025 |
Apr |
Jul
Oct, 2025
Oct
|
TEU Year-over-year % change
Source: S & P Global © 2025 S & P Global
Year-over-year % change
“ Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”
Winter holiday sales are anticipated to grow 3.2 % this year, a notably slower pace than the 4.8 % expansion recorded last year, according to S & P Global. That slowdown comes as consumer prices rise, and job gains slow, but the US economy keeps expanding.
“ Critically, this downshift in [ retail ] growth is an untimely reminder of consumers’ precarious position; they have managed to continue spending despite the ebb and flow of prices in recent years, but each time their steps have been more measured,” said Michael Zdinak, who leads US consumer markets services at S & P Global.
The US Consumer Price Index( CPI) in September expanded 0.3 % on a seasonally adjusted basis, with annual inflation at 3 %, reflecting“ modest price pressures continuing to affect household budget,” Zdinak said. The 43-day
US retailers are forecasting double-digit percentage declines in November and December, and monthly volumes are not expected to exceed 2 million TEUs through March, according to the latest Global Port Tracker( GPT), produced by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation( NRF). Months of frontloading explain the harsher-than-usual import slowdown in the final months of this year, but uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing US tariff policy are keeping retail inventories running lean.
“ These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” said Ben Hackett, the consultancy’ s founder.
“ This downshift in growth is an untimely reminder of consumers’ precarious position.”
US federal government shutdown delayed the October release of the US CPI and contributed to the University of Michigan’ s consumer sentiment index falling for the second straight month— and to its lowest reading since May— in November.
12 Journal of Commerce | December 1, 2025 www. joc. com