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Full-throttle retail
Peak season cargo volumes will follow an explosion of Asian imports in July . Imports from Asia in July increased 32.8 % in Los Angeles and 44.8 % in Long Beach year over year , according to PIERS , a sister company of Journal of Commerce within S & P Global .
The National Retail Federation , in its Aug . 8 Global Port Tracker , said it expects a “ near record ” August for Asian imports moving through US ports .
“ Consumers are not in a recessionary frame of mind ,” said Paul Bingham , director of transportation consulting at S & P Global Market Intelligence .
Although inflationary pressures are impacting merchandise moving to higher-end retailers , consumers are still buying by “ shifting down ” their spending to discount retailers , Bingham said . Also , importers of solar panels and related products from China that are subject to pending US tariffs have been frontloading their orders , including imports of electronic components moving to data centers for artificial intelligence , he said .
“ I have been impressed by the resilience of demand ,”
Capacidad control
Asia-Mexico trade digesting recent capacity adds
By Laura Robb
Spot container rates from Asia to the west coast of Mexico climbed sharply in early September amid fresh blank sailings and a cargo rush ahead of China ’ s Golden Week holiday in early October . The gains come after two months of declining rates brought on by new capacity injected into the trade lane .
A mostly successful $ 2,000 general rate increase ( GRI ) implemented by carriers brought rates up to $ 5,600 per FEU as of Sept . 6 — up nearly $ 1,500 from Aug . 31 , according EAX , a public index of maritime rates from Asia to Mexico provided by Eternity International Freight Forwarder México . Eternity President Nicolas Portenza attributed the rate rebound to the
JRomero04 / Shutterstock . com cascading impacts of blank sailings and a volume push from shippers ahead of Golden Week . Six blanks were scheduled on the trade lane through the first half of September , according to data from Eternity International .
Last gasp ?
Portenza , though , doesn ’ t expect the momentum to last .
“ I think after Golden Week the rate will fall to the $ 4,000 [ per FEU ] level at least ,” he said . “ But now , the demand is strong before Golden Week and carriers are tightening the capacity on purpose .”
The jump comes after two months of bearishness brought on by the recent deployment of several new services from Asia to the west coast of Mexico . That capacity put downward pressure on container spot rates during August , which fell more than 20 % to reach $ 4,104 per FEU by the end of August , according to EAX . That nearly $ 1,100 reduction in rates for cargo from China base ports to Manzanillo and Lazaro Cardenas came after an earlier drop of more than 10 % from June to July . New services on the lane include the AC1 from Maersk ; the WSA5 from Cosco Shipping ; the M2X from CMA CGM ; the MEXICAS and DAHLIA from Mediterranean Shipping Co .; and the FLX from HMM — a significant increase to the historical standard capacity of 90,000 TEUs weekly .
“ The demand is strong before Golden Week and carriers are tightening the capacity on purpose .”
Additionally , the lane will gain two more services in February from the Maersk / Hapag-Lloyd Gemini Cooperation , according to maritime intelligence firm eeSea . Market behavior through 2024 will be largely dependent on how the new capacity is managed .
Overall , however , forwarders say inbound demand remains strong . Meanwhile , market sources say there was still significant congestion at Mexican ports as of Sept . 3 , with cargo ultimately destined for South America waiting to be transloaded . “ We will be having space issues until after [ the second or third week of October ,]” said a logistics professional close to the trade . “ Then the market should ease between late October and mid-December , when we could have a new rush — but it all depends on carriers and capacity .”
email : Laura . Robb @ spglobal . com www . joc . com September 23 , 2024 | Journal of Commerce 13