Cover Story
Rail container dwell times at marine terminals in the Northwest Seaport Alliance ( NWSA ) of Seattle and Tacoma have doubled in recent weeks as intermodal container moves spiked amid peak season imports . Retailers shifted some discretionary import volumes to the Pacific Northwest gateway because of concerns over strike threats by International Brotherhood of Teamsters rail workers in Canada and the expiration of the International Longshoremen ’ s Association ( ILA ) contract .
US imports from Asia through the Northwest Seaport Alliance increased nearly 51 % in July 2024 from July 2023 , according to PIERS , a Journal of Commerce sister company within S & P Global .
“ No mode can accommodate that kind of volatility without disruption ,” rail industry analyst Lawrence Gross , president and founder of Gross Transportation , told Journal of Commerce last week .
Will they or won ’ t they ?
US imports from Asia rise sharply through August
Total monthly TEU volume of US containerized imports from Asia , with year-over-year change
TEU volume
Carriers upping capacity from Asia to US West Coast
Container ship capacity deployed from Asia to US West Coast , with historical blanked capacity , capacity estimates and blank sailings already announced .
TEU capacity
1,600,000 80 %
1,400,000 60 %
1,206,735 1,200,000 50 %
1,000,000 |
40 % |
1,000,000 |
100 % |
800,000 |
20 % |
600,000 |
0 % |
400,000 |
200,000 |
-20% |
0 |
-40% |
|
L 2017
May
2018 ,
|
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
TEU Year-over-year % change
Mint Images / Getty Images
Source : S & P Global © 2024 S & P Global
2M |
1.5M |
1M |
-500k |
L |
0 |
-500k |
-1M |
L |
2022 |
2023 |
Mar , 2024
2024
|
|
Actual capacity |
Expected capacity |
Blanked capacity |
Notes : as of Sept . 3 , 2024 . Source : eeSea
© 2024 S & P Global
Year-over-year % change
On the East and Gulf coasts , the cutoff for shipping goods from Asia to have them available for the start of winter holiday shopping has passed . Cargo flow through the coasts , nonetheless , is under threat of a strike if a tentative agreement isn ’ t reached by Sept . 30 .
As of early September , the ILA and waterfront employers weren ’ t at the negotiating table . The union , on Sept . 5 , appointed local vice presidents to head committees that will coordinate labor actions at East and Gulf coast ports if a new contract isn ’ t reached by the end of the month .
Despite sources telling Journal of Commerce that the management group United States Maritime Alliance ( USMX ) has reached out more than 10 times seeking new talks since June when the ILA suspended negotiations over a local dispute in Mobile , no new talks have been scheduled and there appears to be little motivation on the part of management or labor to secure a deal to avert a strike .
The ILA contends that employers weren ’ t prepared for negotiations when both sides met more than a year and a half ago and admitted as much . Employers “ are still not prepared to acknowledge the record profits their member companies publicly report ,” said ILA spokesman James McNamara .
Calling the scenario a “ brewing storm ,” the Retail Industry Leaders Association said Sept . 4 , the “ importance of keeping these ports operational cannot be overstated , especially as the peak holiday season approaches .”
If there is one point that management and labor agree on it is the two sides being “ very , very far apart ” on wages , the core issue in this negotiating round .
There is no serious discussion on port automation , for example , with management largely accepting that meaningful progress on automation is not in the cards in container-handling ports from Maine to Texas under the current union leadership .
Management ’ s current offer of a nearly 32 % pay increase over six years contrasts with the union ’ s current demand for a 78 % increase based on its view that its members deserve a share of carriers ’ historic profits earned during the pandemic .
12 Journal of Commerce | September 23 , 2024 www . joc . com