Commentary

North American intermodal activity has grown just 6 % since 2015, while GDP has jumped 24 %. Dgu / Shutterstock. com cantly from the middle of 2021 through the end of 2023. It was only in 2024 and 2025 that the bulk of the divergence occurred. Clearly, substantial damage was inflicted in 2024 by the various disruptions that impacted this trade.

On the other hand, the Mexican market has not tracked very well with the North American domestic market. Cross-border volume improved through 2022 and 2023, while overall domestic activity largely declined. There followed, however, a dip in cross-border activity in 2023 in the face of generally improving domestic intermodal volume. Only recently has the cross-border volume regained the level achieved 18 months earlier.

Through the first seven months of 2025, Canada – US cross-border revenue moves slid 18 % year over year, while Mexico – US volume rose 13 %. This can be compared with a 4.3 % year-to-date gain in total North American volume, with international and domestic container traffic rising 6.5 % and 2.1 %, respectively.

There may be additional heavy weather ahead for the Canadian border market. Under the US Trade Representative’ s Section 301 action, Chinese-owned and-built ships docking in the US will incur fees starting Oct. 14.

Within the same Section 301 document is a proposal for fees on containers originating overseas and entering the US via land routes. These fees would be meant to compensate for the China-related ship fees, as well as potentially the Harbor Maintenance Tax. As of now, these fees have not been formalized, but the threat remains. On the other hand, it appears that Mexico – US intermodal services are gaining traction. The dip in 2024 may have been a function of the market scrambling that resulted from the merger of Canadian Pacific Railway and Kansas City Southern, but now, it appears that these services are gaining stride.

email: lgross @ intermodalindepth. com

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Shutterstock. com www. joc. com October 6, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 69