Commentary Land Lines

By Larry Gross

With all the trade turmoil underway, it might be useful to take another look at the cross-border intermodal markets, where two very different stories are playing out. The Canada – US market is in a world of hurt, while the Mexico – US market is showing signs of improvement.

These two markets are very different. The Canada – US market is substantially larger than the Mexico – US market; more than twice as many containers crossed the Canadian border in the past 12 months as crossed the Mexican border.

Domestic intermodal volume growth remains modest

Index of North America international and domestic, Canada – US, and Mexico – US 12- month moving average intermodal volumes

2015 Average = 100

US cross-border trade volumes heading in opposite directions

Index of total North America, Canada – US and Mexico – US 12-month moving average intermodal volumes

2015 Average = 100

138 120

100 100 80

60

Source: IANA ETSO database

130 120

110 100 100 90 80 70 60

Canada- US Mexico- US International North America Domestic North America

Source: IANA ETSO database

Canada- US Mexico- US Total North America

© 2025 S & P Global

© 2025 S & P Global

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Further, the composition of these markets is distinct. The Canadian cross-border market is all about marine containers, which comprise over 90 % of traffic. Most of these 20- and 40-foot boxes land at ports in Western and Eastern Canada and are transported to inland US destinations by stack trains. In contrast, 53-foot domestic containers accounted for 99 % of the Mexican cross-border market in the last 12 months.

How have these markets performed? Consider the 10-year history on a 12-month moving average through July 25, according to the most recent data available from the Intermodal Association of North America( IANA).

Total North American intermodal volume has grown 6 % since 2015. That’ s not terribly impressive given that real GDP has moved up 24 % over the same time frame, but traffic has increased. The same cannot be said for the cross-border markets. As of July, Mexico – US traffic is down about 10 % from 2015 levels, while Canada – US volumes have fallen a stunning 42 %.

The Canada – US market is in a world of hurt, while the Mexico – US market is showing signs of improvement.

Yet, there were indeed periods during which each of the cross-border markets outperformed the average. For Mexico, it was a rather brief interlude in 2016 – 17. The heyday for Canada began in 2017 and lasted for four years.

Things changed dramatically for both markets in 2021. It marked the beginning of an unsteady recovery for the Mexico – US cross-border market, with the index rising from 76 in December 2021 to a reading of 90 in July 2025, an 18 % improvement. At the same time, the Canada – US index has dropped from 112 in April 2021 to 58 in July, a 48 % decline.

But is total North American intermodal activity the right benchmark? After all, the Canada cross-border trade is international, and Mexico – US trade is overwhelmingly domestic.

Separating North American international and domestic performance reveals a more nuanced story regarding the Canadian market. Total international activity also declined signifi-

68 Journal of Commerce | October 6, 2025 www. joc. com