Surface Transportation

US manufacturing inventories leap while retail stocks stay lean

Ratio of end-of-month US retail, manufacturing, and wholesale inventories to monthly sales

; a ratio of 2.5 indicates enough stock to cover 2.5 months of sales

1.6

1.5

1.0 1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

L

LJul Jan 2023 Jul Jan 2024 Jul Jan 2025 Jul

Source: US Census Bureau

Retail Manufacturing Wholesale

S & P Global, parent company of the Journal of Commerce, forecasts US real GDP growth will slow to 1.9 % in 2025 from 2.8 % in 2024.

“ Consumers are still purchasing goods, we still have some

© 2025 S & P Global business spending and that’ s keeping us out of recession,” Bingham said.“ But this is a weak growth economy.”

And despite the relatively weak freight market, trucking rates rose in August, a sign that shippers are balancing current capacity needs and future demand.

All-inclusive less-than-truckload( LTL) costs rose 1.5 % sequentially and 10.5 % year over year in August, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’( BLS) long-distance producer price index( PPI) which measures final“ selling prices.” Truckload pricing jumped 1.8 % from July, its biggest sequential leap since December 2024, but was still 0.2 % lower than in August 2024.

The solid growth in the LTL PPI belies reports that pricing is softening as freight demand declines, driving down shipment counts.

“ This says to me that shippers are willing to hang on to their current contracts and capacity and keep those carriers whole, at least for the moment,” Prather said in a Sept. 11 interview.“ They may think they’ re going to need that capacity later this year or early next year.”

Research Analyst Cathy Morrow Roberson contributed to this report.

email: bill. cassidy @ spglobal. com

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