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No recession, inventory replenishment could boost US trucking demand

By William B. Cassidy

Monthly US manufacturing inventories are higher than at any point since 2020. Shutterstock. com

Paul Bingham, director of transportation consulting for S & P Global Market Intelligence, said during the webcast.

Consumer spending“ is not going to go into decline like we would see in a recession, but it’ s still going to be weak in the second half of the year,” Bingham said.

Spending on durable goods will drop year over year in 2025, he predicted,“ and that’ s even accounting for the pullahead spending where people were buying automobiles and appliances to get ahead of tariff inflation.”

Inventory-to-sales ratios( ISRs) compare the value of a company’ s inventory to net sales and provide a measure of how quickly inventory moves off the shelf. The lower the ratio, the more efficient the supply chain, but with less inventory on hand, the risk of stockouts and lost sales rises.

General merchandise stores, including Walmart and Costco, had an ISR of 1.25 in July, according to the most recent available data from the US Census Bureau. That’ s 12.6 % lower than the 10-year average of 1.43 and 6.7 % below the pre-pandemic July 2019 reading of 1.34.

The retail sector had an ISR of 1.29 in July, down 9.8 % from the 10-year average( 1.43) and 12.2 % from July 2019( 1.47), while merchant wholesalers had an ISR of 1.28, down 0.8 % from the 10-year average( 1.29) and 5.2 % from July 2019( 1.35).

“ Only about 7 % of the market is overstocked. There are stockouts possible in some industries.”

The US freight downturn is stretching into its fourth year, but inventory restocking may give trucking a boost in early 2026, according to analysts.

“ Inventory-to-sales ratios right now are not as elevated as we would expect, with all the inbound freight that hit us in June and July,” Keith Prather, managing director and partner at Armada Corporate Intelligence, said during a Sept. 10 Journal of Commerce webcast.

“ Only about 7 % of the market is overstocked,” compared with June 2019, Prather said. Excepting durable goods, about 28 % of the market is overstocked compared with a 10-year average. If consumers continue to spend,“ there are stockouts possible in some industries,” he said, leading to inventory replenishment in the first half of 2026.

That could mean more freight moving in tractor-trailers.

Whether consumers will open their wallets wider in the fourth quarter is a big question. Although the US doesn’ t appear headed toward a recession, growth is weak,

Manufacturers, whom Prather described as“ overstocked,” saw their collective ISR steady at 1.56 in July after spiking to 1.58 in April, the highest monthly reading since June 2020. The July ISR was 15.6 % above the 10-year average( 1.35) and 6.8 % above July 2019( 1.47).

‘ Metering and holding’

Armada’ s analysis coincides with reports of importers holding some shipments, drawing down pre-tariff stocks and generally practicing lean inventory management to cope with uncertainty created by high US tariffs.

Retailer Kirkland, for example, has said it is“ metering and holding” imports as it navigates tariff deadlines and seasonal demand. Other retailers accelerated shipments, as did manufacturers looking to avoid higher input costs.

“ Shippers did a great job of pulling down inventory” in the first half of 2025, Cory Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement strategy at logistics provider RXO, told the Journal of Commerce back in August.

“[ Inventories ] were flat going into‘ Liberation Day,’ got pulled down, and now they’ ve climbed back up,” Klujsza said, referring to the April 2 introduction of US reciprocal tariffs.

But are inventories low enough to cause stockouts and a supply chain reset? That depends on the level of demand.

The good news is that the US economy does not appear to be heading into a recession, said Bingham.

60 Journal of Commerce | October 6, 2025 www. joc. com