International Maritime
Asia – Europe schedule reliability slump deepens
Percentage of on-time arrivals of container ships; ships are considered late if they arrive one calendar day or more after schedule
On-time percentage
60 %
50 %
40 % 10 % 30 %
20 %
10 % 0 % 0 %
L Jan 2025 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2026 Sep, 2024 Apr
Jul Oct
Source: eeSea
Asia – North Europe Asia – Mediterranean
© 2026 S & P Global
bottlenecks caused by a series of typhoons that blew through Asia in the third quarter.
Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis noted that ports in Asia will struggle to claw out of the congestion before the end of the year because the storms helped tie up 8.5 % of global capacity.
While waiting times for vessels outside the Chinese ports are improving, the knock-on effects have destroyed carrier on-time performance on the Asia – North Europe and Asia – Mediterranean trade lanes.
Data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows Asia to Europe on-time performance slipped to 4 % in September from 6 % in August, with 9.9 days of average delays across all vessels, the worst month on the trade since September 2021.
Verstappen said carriers seem intent on increasing network reliability to ensure capacity on the trade lane.
“ This can only be done by speeding up the vessel rotation, hence by transiting through Suez instead of around the Cape and in this way shortening the distance traveled so the vessel can make more voyages and generate more turnover and revenue,” he said.
Frank van der Laan, senior business intelligence advisor at the Port of Rotterdam Authority, said the November to February period is historically the quietest time for terminals, with more blank sailings by carriers.
“ It would therefore be a good time to phase in the services via the Suez Canal,” van der Laan told Journal of Commerce.“ If this phased introduction continues over a slightly longer period, it could well go ahead without any major disruption.
“ It will certainly put more pressure on the system, but if it is done gradually, it should be manageable provided there are no other large-scale disruptions,” he added.
Gaining steam
Since the Gemini Cooperation alliance of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced on July 6 that its AE15 / SE3 Asia – Mediterranean service would return to the Suez, the move back to normal routings has gathered pace.
Gemini has since announced the return of five more services to its normal Red Sea / Suez routing, including its remaining three Asia – Mediterranean services. The Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance carriers, as well as Mediterranean Shipping Co., have also announced similar routing changes.
Rasmussen said in total, carriers have returned 16 services to the Suez since early July. Initially, the increase in Suez transits was mainly driven by southbound sailings. During the third quarter, capacity transiting northbound on head-haul routes was 75 % of the southbound capacity, but that rose to 81 % during the first two weeks of October. With cargo bookings increasing after Golden Week, some carriers have announced freight-all-kinds( FAK) rate increases from Oct. 19 on both Asia – North Europe and Asia – Mediterranean trade lanes. But HSBC research analysts said they see“ limited scope for sustained gains given faster Suez returns and softer demand.”
“ We therefore see a firmer fourth quarter floor but remain cautious on 2027-2028 as deliveries accelerate and Red Sea routings normalize, increasing overcapacity risk,” the bank’ s analysts wrote in a mid-October market report.
email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com
Suez ships overlapping round-Africa sailings could cause bunching at Rotterdam( pictured) and Antwerp. Lunghammer / Shutterstock. com
16 Journal of Commerce | November 2, 2026 www. joc. com