International Maritime

Asia – Europe container volumes grew for 13 straight quarters through Q2 2026. Martin Brazill / Shutterstock. com

“ The last few years have shown how quickly new disruptions can change the market and the overall rate environment,” he added, noting that during the discussions this year, there was less focus solely on rates and more on securing predictability, capacity access and supply chain continuity.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, said in an Oct. 9 market update that although the pace of decline in Asia – Europe rates has eased a little, but prices remain elevated,“ so we are not at the floor yet.”

“ Demand has been very strong all year, but it could not keep growing at double-digits indefinitely.”

Forwarders play an important role in setting market expectations for Asia – Europe contracts, but Attila Toth, global sea logistics trade manager for Asia – Europe at Kuehne + Nagel, said the current uncertainty was making it tough to forecast a long-term rate outlook.

“ Looking ahead to 2027, it’ s too early to draw any firm conclusion on which direction the rates will go because no one knows what the next 12 months will bring,” Toth said.“ I expect customers will continue to look for the right balance between cost, reliability and flexibility.”

“ For European shippers, tender season is in full force and falling short-term rates are a welcome development as they negotiate long-term contracts, because they also benchmark against the short-term market,” Sand wrote.

“ Demand has been very strong all year, not least into Europe, but it could not keep growing at double-digits indefinitely,” he added.“ As demand eases from a very high level, the fight for capacity eases too, and even freight forwarders are now getting better deals from carriers in longterm contract negotiations.”

email: greg. knowler @ spglobal. com www. joc. com

Rising Suez transits risk congestion at North Europe hubs

By Greg Knowler

Better schedule reliability from ocean carriers will be crucial if Europe’ s two largest ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp- Bruges are to avoid a surge in vessel arrivals as more services are switched from sailing southern Africa to the Suez Canal route.

A key concern of the North Europe hubs is that as services move to the shorter route through Suez, they will begin to overlap ships on services still sailing around southern Africa, creating a bunching effect at the ports and leading to cargo bottlenecks.

Lennart Verstappen, spokesperson for Port of Antwerp- Bruges, said the size of vessels from Asia means large call sizes that pile pressure on terminals and hinterland networks, something that will be exacerbated by vessels arriving outside scheduled berthing windows.

“ Congestion is never far away,” Verstappen told Journal of Commerce.“ Terminals are designed to be able to handle high average volumes but are not designed to handle continuous peaks. If moving back to Suez means increased schedule reliability, terminal operators will be able to make better plans.”

Transits through the Suez have now recovered to above 50 % of the levels recorded before Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait began in November 2023, according to shipping association Bimco.

Niels Rasmussen, Bimco’ s chief shipping analyst, said the 10 % of global shipping capacity diverted around the Cape of Good Hope is falling rapidly.

“ However, as the return to the Suez Canal has coincided with increased port congestion in Asia, the full effect on supply-demand has yet to be seen,” he wrote in an Oct. 14 update. Rasmussen, citing data from Clarksons Research, said weekly container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal during the first two weeks of October averaged 753,000 TEUs, compared with 1.4 million TEUs during the same period in 2023.

Dismal reliability

The chances of schedule reliability improving this year appear remote as China’ s main ports work through

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