2025 Top 100 Importers & Exporters
Down in the dumps
Tariff uncertainty to speed recyclable exports decline
By Bill Mongelluzzo
Recyclables exports still slumping after 2024 decline
Containerized US recyclables exports, in laden TEUs, with year-over-year change
TEU volume
159,486 160,000 40 40 % 140,000 120,000
100,000 100,000 80,000
60,000 40,000 20,000
30 %
20 %-30% 10 %
0 %
-10 %
Year-over-year % change
US exporters of recycled commodities have been watching their China business shrink for the better part of the last decade, so they may be better positioned to deal with heightened tariffs, but widespread trade uncertainty is likely to compound downward pressure on volumes.
Over the past 10 years, export destinations have shifted away from mainland China to South and Southeast Asia. Last year, India and Malaysia tied for the largest destination, receiving 17.5 % of containerized US recyclables exports each, followed by Thailand( 15.3 %) and Taiwan( 11.8 %), according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global. Mainland China, which had been the top destination for US recyclable exports as recently as 2019, ranked 15th in 2024.
“ US tariffs— actual and potential— have introduced disruption and significant uncertainty, increasing the risk of underperformance in the US recycled materials market this year,” Emily Sanchez, chief economist at the Recycled Material Association, told the Journal of Commerce.
Total recyclables exports fell 5.5 % year over year in 2024, leaving them 12.4 % below the level recorded in 2019, according to PIERS data.
Nick Halper, president of exporter Paper Tigers, noted that declines in US exports of scrap paper products to China began after Beijing introduced environmental efforts known as the Green Fence initiative in 2013 and the
Source: PIERS, S & P Global
Recyclables
EXPORTS
1,294,168 TEUS
↓5.5 %
Change from 2023
↓2.6 %
5-year compound annual growth rate
A 5.5 % drop in 2024 left US recyclables exports down 12.4 % from 2019 levels. Shutterstock. com
0 L Apr Jul Oct Jan 2024 Apr Jul Oct Feb Jan, 2025
TEU
Year-over-year % change
declines accelerated further with the National Sword policy implemented in 2017.
After essentially losing their top customer, US-based recyclable paper traders have been focusing on the domestic market.“ Demand is stronger in the domestic market,” Halper said. In addition to servicing US-based recyclable traders, shippers of paper products are selling to US-based forwarders with ties to China who handle the transportation and logistics of shipping the containers to China, he said.
‘ Inviting retaliation’
-20 %
© 2025 S & P Global
US exporters of many recyclable products are expected to face mounting challenges in overseas markets as the Trump administration’ s tariff policies unfold.
“ In addition to directly raising manufacturers’ costs, imposing tariffs also invites retaliation, which reduces the competitiveness of US exporters,” Sanchez said.“ Restrictive trade policy, weakened industrial and economic activity and significant uncertainty are the top factors we’ re monitoring as downside risks to the US recycled materials situation and outlook.”
Imports of recyclables from Canada and Mexico have escaped the worst impacts of the tariffs policy under the US-Canada-Mexico Agreement( USMCA).
“ Large volumes of recycled materials from these two countries can qualify for duty-free treatment under the USMCA and are not subject to either the emergency borders tariffs of the universal 10 % tariff,” Sanchez said.
Exports of recyclables to other markets are expected to be disrupted this year as they are subject to the 10 % universal baseline tariffs, and tariff uncertainties over the next six months will likely impede traffic flows.
“ The issue is the on-again, off-again approach that is likely to cause significant disruption both for US recyclers, but also overseas markets that typically rely on certainty to make business decisions,” Sanchez said.
email: bill. mongelluzzo @ spglobal. com
50 Journal of Commerce | May 5, 2025 www. joc. com