Surface Transportation
Trucking | Rail | Intermodal | Air & Expedited | Distribution
US diesel fuel prices jumped to $ 5.61 per gallon in mid-April from $ 3.90 prior to the war in Iran. Bilanol / Getyy Images
Drilling into more specific data, truckload linehaul cost per shipment rose 10.2 % in the first quarter from the previous quarter, according to the TD Cowen / AFS index, released April 14. The TD Cowen / AFS truckload rate per mile index is expected to reach 10.1 % in the second quarter, its highest level in three years, up from 9 % in the first quarter. Linehaul costs represent the fundamental transportation cost, separate from fuel or accessorial charges.
The industry is seeing upward rate pressure almost exclusively driven by supply-side dynamics, said Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics, a logistics provider managing $ 11 billion in freight spend.“ There is no significant uptick in demand and no reason to think current conditions will produce a change in the near future.”
“ Pricing discipline has become more pervasive and durable than it ever was previously.”
The latest Cass Freight Index, released April 13, showed total shipments declined 4.5 % year over year in March, but the average shipment cost rose 4.2 % during the same period, another sign a supply-side recovery is happening without an underlying economic driver.
“ Tightness in dry-van truckload( TL) conditions is starting to radiate to other markets, so far mainly reefer and flatbed TL, but eventually this tightness will drive demand in LTL and intermodal as well,” said Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ truckload PPI rose 4.3 % year over year in March, its first annualized increase since February 2025. The PPI covers a broad range of“ selling” prices, including spot and contract rates paid by shippers, and includes fuel surcharges.
Truckload pricing hits 13-month high in March
US long-haul truckload producer price index( PPI)
180
178
170 176
174 181 172
170 L Jul Jan 2025 Jul Jun, 2025 Jan 2026
TL PPI
Notes: US BLS producer price indices are based on selling prices for trucking services
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, JOC analysis
www. joc. com
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L
Crossing modal lines
That freight or demand shift has already begun, according to intermodal marketing companies( IMCs) and shippers.
One non-asset-based IMC told the Journal of Commerce that its volume last month was double that of March 2025; meanwhile, a large Midwest-based shipper who asked not to be identified said they have also seen an increase in tender rejections and decrease in on-time performance from intermodal partners. As spot rates soar, more truck drivers that would typically handle intermodal drayage loads are likely to pursue higher-priced freight.
LTL rates remain elevated as well, despite low shipment volumes. The LTL PPI rose 1.8 % from February to March and was up 7.2 % year over year. AFS Freight’ s Dyer attributed the gain in part to fuel surcharges but also to pricing discipline by LTL carriers.
“ Pricing discipline has become more pervasive and durable than it ever was previously,” Dyer said in an interview, adding that shippers confronting truckload and parcel price shocks are transferring freight to LTL carriers.
The TD Cowen / AFS LTL rate per pound index is expected to climb to 68.4 % in the second quarter, a new high.
email: bill. cassidy @ spglobal. com email: ari. ashe @ spglobal. com
May 4, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 49