More than fuel

Broad US truck pricing increase gaining steam

By Ari Ashe and Bill Cassidy

The three-year decline in freight demand may still be with us, but not the“ rate recession” as pricing data indicates that first-quarter rate hikes were more than a sign of short-term disruption caused by winter storms and that shippers should brace for even higher costs.

Data from industry and government indexes such as the Cass Freight Index, the TD Cowen / AFS Freight Index and the US Producer Price Index( PPI) all show higher trucking costs. These increases are most evident in the truckload spot market but are being felt in contract rates and less-thantruckload( LTL) and intermodal rail rates, too.

Shipper-paid truckload spot rates in March rose 17 cents from February to a weighted average of $ 2.73 per mile on lanes longer than 250 miles. On lanes greater than 250 miles, the unweighted national average rose 18 cents between February and March to $ 2.96 per mile, up 27.2 % year over year, according to an analysis of data from Cargo Chief, DAT Freight & Analytics, Loadsmart, and other sources. Such levels have not been seen since 2022.

“ Tightness in dry-van truckload conditions is starting to radiate to other markets.”

A 32 % war-driven surge in retail diesel costs from February to March drove the gains in pricing. The average US retail diesel price jumped to $ 4.92 per gallon in March from $ 3.72 per gallon in February, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration( EIA). By April 13, diesel prices at the pump reached $ 5.61 per gallon, up from $ 3.58 per gallon in the same week a year ago.

Ramped-up rates

Even without the fuel impact, truckload rates are higher than a year ago.

The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index, which analyzes 120 modally competitive lanes in the US, shows that truckload contract rates, excluding fuel, were up 4.4 % year over year in March. Including fuel, the price for shippers went up between 17 and 20 cents in March.

That is consistent with what two shippers, a big box retailer and an automotive shipper, told the Journal of Commerce in discussing their recently negotiated truckload rates that were up in the low-to-mid-single digits compared with prior contracts.

The shippers, who asked not to be identified, said motor carriers have been more aggressive in pushing up rates than in prior cycles.

Other industry data supports those claims and the Journal of Commerce analysis.

LTL costs set new record in each month of Q1

US long-haul less-than-truckload( LTL) producer price index( PPI)

280

273 270

220 260

250

240 L Jul Jan 2025 Jul Jan Mar 2026

, 2026

LTL PPI

Notes: US BLS producer price indices are based on selling prices for trucking services

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

48 Journal of Commerce | May 4, 2026 www. joc. com

May 4, 2026 | Page 48

More than fuel