2026 Top 100 Importers & Exporters

petrochemical capacity. Attacks on Qatar’ s Ras Laffan LNG plant and Iran’ s South Pars gas field threaten feedstock supply for Mideast resins producers, Glass said. Those facilities could face months, if not years, of repairs, with a preliminary estimate of $ 25 billion worth of damage.

“ Even if they could get in and assess the damage, they can’ t get access to the parts,” Glass said. Access to the necessary equipment may take up to two years.

There is little, if any, outbound logistical constraint facing North American resin shippers currently. Glass said the distributors and packagers that load resin into containers have enough capacity for more volumes, and container ships have ample space.

“ We’ re forecasting another six months of elevated prices and elevated demand for the US producers.”

Export freight rates have ticked higher in anticipation of more demand. The benchmark rate for shipping a dry 20-foot container from Houston to North Europe has reached $ 1,186, according to Xeneta, a 7 % increase from the end of March.

The US already exports about 50 % of its total polyethylene production currently, Glass said, and that figure could reach 60 % thanks to the current strong pricing. US resin customers have about 40 days of inventory, he added, which is a bit of a cushion for diverting product to export markets.

But with about one-fifth of global supply coming out of the Mideast, US producers will not be able to replace it entirely. North American producers can likely bring utilization up to about 93 % in the short term, but that much utilization will also mean more maintenance for plant equipment.

In the near term, the next major supply for the export market will be a Chevron Phillips Chemical and QatarEnergy plant in Orange, Texas, that is expected to be completed in mid-2026. The plant will be capable of making enough polyethylene resins to fill 46,000 TEUs per year, but Glass said it will at take least another two to three months after completion for the plant to reach that maximum output.

Utilization above 90 % is“ the max that they can run,” Glass said.“ We don’ t have a lot of excess capacity.”

The ongoing strength in resins prices could also force the market to self-correct, Semesnyei said, with consumers and companies deciding to cut back demand entirely due to higher costs for downstream products.

“ Major demand destruction will become a growing risk the longer the conflict lasts, impacting the entire world,” he said.

Structural demand shifts pulverizing US forest exports

By Ari Ashe

Stagnant home sales, increased demand for composite materials and trade policy uncertainty are extending a multiyear decline in US paper and forest product exports, according to manufacturers and forwarders in the sector.

Industrial production of wood products decreased 2.9 % year over year in February 2026, while capacity utilization dropped 4.2 % over the same period, according to the Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization has plunged 30 % since the base year of 2017 as the sector struggles to survive.

With housing supply exceeding demand in certain US regions and alternative materials taking share from traditional wood used in flooring, furniture and home construction, several producers of paper and forest products reduced production, shuttered sawmills or sold their businesses last year.

As a result, outbound containerized shipments of those products plummeted 12 % year over year in 2025, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global. Export volumes have dropped at a compound annual rate of 7.3 % in the last five years, with total shipments down nearly one-third from 2020 levels.

Canfor, a large paper and forest product manufacturer, has closed nine sawmills in the last three years, including two last year.

“[ We ] continue to be impacted by weak global pulp and paper markets with ongoing trade disputes and broader economic uncertainty contributing to elevated inventory levels and weak pricing through much of 2025 and continuing into 2026,” CEO Stephen MacKie

Reciprocal tariffs chop down forest exports to China

Percentage share of US paper and forest product exports by destination

TEU market share

104 % 100

80 %

100 60 %

40 %

20 %

Paper and forest products

EXPORTS

612,985 TEUS

↓12 %

Change from 2024

↓7.3 %

5-year compound annual growth rate

0 % L 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 China India Japan Vietnam Puerto Rico Other

L email: michael. angell @ spglobal. com

Source: PIERS, S & P Global

© 2026 S & P Global

44 Journal of Commerce | May 4, 2026 www. joc. com