Importers & Exporters Top 100 2026 was already slowing, primarily due to Chinese import tariffs in response to duties imposed by the Trump administration.
Containerized US agricultural exports grew 2.9 % last year, but that was down from 7.1 % in 2024, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global. Perhaps more alarmingly, outbound agricultural product shipments have declined at a compound annual rate of 1.7 % since 2020.
“ When the impact of tariffs is a higher price that other countries don’ t have to deal with, that certainly diminishes our market access and encourages competitors to develop longer-term strategies to expand their market access,” said Buddy Allen, president and CEO of the American Cotton Shippers Association.
Both Allen and Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, said products from Brazil have largely taken the place of US cotton and soybeans in the Chinese market, creating what Steenhoek described as“ considerable headwinds” for exports.
Mainland China’ s share of US agriculture exports fell to 6.2 % from 15.7 % in 2024 and as high as 23.7 %
in 2022, according to PIERS. In dollar terms, Chinese buyers purchased just $ 3.1 billion worth of soybeans in 2025, down from $ 17.9 billion the year before, according to Steenhoek.
The rapid shift of agricultural exports to other markets is also being felt at the port level.
“ Six years ago, about 70 % of our cargo was tied to China. Today, it’ s closer to 60 %, with countries in Southeast Asia growing in importance,” said Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach. Cotton exports through Long Beach plummeted 90 % last year, while soybean exports fell 95 %, according to Hacegaba.
Steenhoek said promising markets include the Philippines, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, Guatemala and Vietnam.
“ Potentially, 2026 could be a good marketing year in terms of demand, but there are so many uncertainties ahead in terms of tariffs,” he said.“ This is an industry where you are making your commitments today for deliveries months away.”
email: bill. mongelluzzo @ spglobal. com nearly doubled as Iran’ s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the region’ s petrochemical plants from the rest of the world. Glass said North American plants are now running at 91 % utilization and likely to defer maintenance due to the strong pricing.
“ We’ re forecasting another six months of elevated prices and elevated demand for the US producers,” he said, adding that producers had lowered output in December and January due to unsatisfactory incremental margins.
With Middle East supplies largely cut off, North American petrochemical plants are exceeding 90 % utilization. Shutterstock. com
Damage to energy infrastructure
Ted Semesnyei, an associate director for S & P Global, said the strong demand will play out in waves globally. Asia
Chemical, resin exports rise in 18 of last 22 months
Containerized US chemical product and plastic resin exports, in laden TEUs, with yearover-year change
TEU volume
40 %
200,000 186,092 30 30 %
150,000 100,000 100,000
50,000
Source: PIERS, S & P Global
0 L Apr Jul Oct Jan 2025 Apr Jul Oct Feb Jan, 2026
TEU Year-over-year % change
20 %-30% 10 %
0 %
-10 %
-20 %
Year-over-year % change
© 2026 S & P Global will be the first pinched by the cut in Mideast supply. While China has built up its own resin production to supply the region, it primarily uses crude oil from the Middle East as a feedstock. Chinese producers are starting to cut back because of high feedstock costs and are importing alternative feedstocks, which will also become more expensive over time.
Europe has some buffer inventory, having built up resin stocks in anticipation of maintenance season, Glass said. European producers also have some flexibility as to sourcing feedstocks from the Mideast or the US.
According to Semesnyei, prices risk increases not only due to feedstock costs but to supply availability.
“ Because of the way global trade is set up, the Asia region is most at risk, followed by Europe and then North America,” he said.
A big unknown for the resins market is the extent of the damage that has already occurred to Mideast www. joc. com May 4, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 43