Importers & Exporters Top 100 2024 Cover Story
“ You ’ re seeing trade flows significantly up year on year , and that is exacerbating the shortage of capacity ” in some trade lanes , Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said during the carrier ’ s quarterly earnings call . Unseasonal demand had a “ broadening effect ” in terms of rate increases in trade lanes not directly affected by Red Sea attacks , Clerc said .
That will have a positive impact on spot pricing — for ocean carriers at least — in the second quarter “ and possibly the third quarter as well ,” he said . “ What we see so far is at least a better second quarter , the fourth quarter being the most challenging one and ... the third being a bit of a transition between the two ,” Clerc told investment analysts .
The “ broadening effect ” Clerc cites is showing up in the trans-Pacific trade . Container spot rates from North Asia to the US climbed steadily in late 2023 amid attacks on
“ You ’ re seeing trade flows significantly up year on year , and that is exacerbating the shortage of capacity .”
The pull-forward may be augmented by some inventory restocking after inventories were widely slashed in 2023 following the early-order rush of 2022 . US business inventories were up 1 % year over year in February , the last month for which US Census Bureau data is available . Retail inventories were up 5.6 % year over year in February at $ 808.7 billion .
And consumers are buying more . US retail sales rose 3.9 % in March from a year ago to $ 613.9 billion , according to the US Census Bureau . From January through March , retail sales rose 1.9 %. The seasonally adjusted month-tomonth increase from February to March was 0.7 %.
Consumer spending is forecast to increase 2.6 % in 2024 , according to S & P Global , parent company of the Journal of Commerce . That ’ s higher than S & P Global ’ s previous forecast of 2.4 % for the year , thanks to stronger-than-expected equity values at the end of the first quarter , coupled with continued low unemployment and a faster rate of immigration .
US imports overall should grow 4.8 % this year by dollar value to more than $ 4 trillion , after falling 1.7 % in 2023 , according to S & P Global ’ s April US economic forecast . The dollar value of exports of goods is expected to rise 3.2 % to $ 3.2 trillion , according to the forecast . That ’ s a downgrade from an earlier projection of 3.9 % growth in 2024 .
A ‘ broadening effect ’
Maersk has noted increases in ocean cargo demand in several regions , with its Asia – North America volume up nearly 28 % from a year ago in the first quarter , the company said May 2 . Demand on the Asia-to-Europe trade route rose 9 % from a year ago , while Latin American demand was up 22 % and West Africa volumes 18 %.
www . joc . com shipping in the Red Sea and then dropped from February through April . But current rates are up by triple digits on a year-over-year basis , according to Platts , a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global .
Spot rates of $ 4,000 per FEU in the week ending May 3 for North Asia to the US West Coast were up 42 % from the previous week and 183 % year over year , according to Platts . Spot rates from North Asia to the East Coast , including freight routed away from the Red Sea , were up 102 % year over year and 46 % from the previous week at $ 4,860 per FEU .
Higher eastbound trans-Pacific volumes reportedly are causing rail container backlogs at some marine terminals
Trans-Pacific imports jump 25.5 % yoy in Q1 2024
Containerized US imports from Asia , in laden TEUs , with year-over-year change
TEU volume
1,773,714 |
40 % |
1,600,000 |
30 % |
1,400,000 1,200,000
1,000,000
1,000,000 800,000
600,000 400,000 200,000
Source : S & P Global
20 % 10 % 100 0 % % -10 % -20 % -30 %
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
-40% |
|
Apr
L
|
Jul |
Oct |
Jan 2023 |
Apr |
Jul |
Oct |
Jan 2024 ,
Apr
|
TEU Year-over-year % change
Year-over-year % change
© 2024 S & P Global
May 20 , 2024 | Journal of Commerce 15