2024 Top 100 Importers & Exporters Cover Story
US imports are expected to grow 4.8 % by dollar value in 2024 , while exports are forecast to rise 3.2 %. Shutterstock . com
Despite some “ green shoots ” in manufacturing , the US freight economy outlook for the second half of 2024 is still cloudy . Any improvements are likely to be gradual , not sudden . That means shippers will have another year of pricing power over North American trucking and intermodal rail . On the ocean , the tide may have begun to shift , but it ’ s unclear whether first-half pricing and volume increases will have second-half staying power .
There ’ s no clear timeline as to when the attacks on shipping in the Red Sea may end , but capacity is being repositioned , and new capacity is entering the market .
Several large US retailers in April signed 2024 – 25 service contracts for the eastbound trans-Pacific at rates
US truckload rates still bouncing along bottom
US long-haul truckload producer price index ( PPI )
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210 140 200
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170 L Jul Jan 2023 Jul Jan 2024 Mar , 2024
TL PPI
Notes : US BLS producer price indices are based on selling prices for trucking services
Source : US Bureau of Labor Statistics data , JOC analysis © 2024 S & P Global
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that are about 12 % to 17 % higher than the 2023 – 24 deals , industry sources say . They add that mid-size US importers who haven ’ t finalized 2024 – 2025 service contracts risk shipping at spot rates that are about two and one-half times the prevailing contract rates .
Spot rates in the eastbound trans-Pacific are set to increase more than $ 1,000 per FEU based on May 1 general rate increases filed last month by most of the ocean carriers . Carriers and non-vessel-operating common carriers expect the rate hikes to stick in the short term as vessels leaving Asia are forecast to be full well into May .
First-half containerized US imports are expected to total 11.7 million TEUs , an 11 % year-over-year increase , according to the monthly Global Port Tracker produced by the National Retail Federation ( NRF ) and Hackett Associates . US imports rose 8.3 % in January and 26.4 % in February , said the NRF , which expects annualized gains through August .
That ’ s a stiff tailwind after a 12.9 % drop in total US containerized imports in 2023 to 24 million TEUs , according to data from PIERS , a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global . In 2022 , imports rose only 0.1 %, as shippers slashed orders in the second half after front-loading imports into the first half of the year .
Watching retail movements
The increase in imports in recent months doesn ’ t necessarily mean the US retail economy is shifting to a higher gear . As in other years — most notably 2022 — importers may be pulling some goods forward to mitigate peak season risk . In 2022 , West Coast labor talks were the concern . This year it ’ s East Coast labor talks and attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea .
14 Journal of Commerce | May 20 , 2024 www . joc . com