Peak Season Forecast: Ocean, Intermodal, Air and Trucking
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Nearly 60 % of for-hire truck tonnage in the US comes from domestic manufacturing. Shutterstock. com economist for S & P Global Market Intelligence. S & P Global is the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.
A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing. Both the ISM and S & P Global PMIs rose above 50 in the first two months of the year after a long period of contraction. The ISM PMI had been below 50 for 24 of the previous 25 months.
S & P Global’ s read on manufacturing was slightly more positive— but volatile— over the long term. Its PMI had been above 50 during the first half of 2024 and in contraction during the second half of the year.
Declining metrics
As the US economy slows— preliminary estimates indicate real GDP growth turned negative in the first quarter— signs of the impacts to supply chains are becoming more apparent.
Despite lower demand, average lead times for manufacturing orders lengthened for a seventh consecutive month, according to S & P Global. The ISM Supplier Deliveries Index showed a continued slowing of deliveries to manufacturers in April.
S & P Global noted a reduction in purchases by manufacturers adding to their stocks. That may reflect lower orders and additions of inputs manufactured overseas as high tariffs on China took effect in April.
“ Supply disruptions and cost concerns, again linked to tariffs, were widely noted,” S & P Global said in its PMI report.
Williamson said one of the few bright spots for US manufacturers was a gain in new sales from customers switching from imports to goods produced in US-based factories.
However,“ any such sales increase was countered by worries over tariff-related disruptions to supply chains and lost export sales,” he said.
Declining US factory production growth flatlines in April
Seasonally-adjusted world, US, Asia, China and EU manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Indexes( PMIs); a reading of 50 or higher indicates growth
PMI
56 54 52 50530 48 46 44 42
L Jul Jan 2024 Jul Jan 2025 Apr, 2025
Source: S & P Global
The US Federal Reserve System also found the US economy struggling to gain traction in April.
“ Uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive,” the Fed said in its Beige Book economic report released in early May.
Just five of the 12 Federal Reserve districts covered by the report saw slight growth in economic activity, while three districts saw little change and four reported slight to modest declines.
Data on manufacturing output growth in those areas was“ mixed, but two-thirds of districts said activity was little changed or had declined” from the previous month, the Fed said.
email: bill. cassidy @ spglobal. com
World US Asia China EU
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20 Journal of Commerce | June 2, 2025 www. joc. com