Peak Season Forecast: Ocean, Intermodal, Air and Trucking

Special Report ports have limited transload activity, as IPI and repositioning of ISO( International Organization for Standardization) boxes with domestic loads are much more common practices north of the border.

Not much transload moves via intermodal off the East Coast, as the shorter haul impairs the economics of the practice. But if you put it all together, transloads likely represent at least 20 % of all North American intermodal activity and an even higher percentage of US domestic intermodal volume.

While the weaker transloading flows off the West Coast will result in lower eastbound domestic intermodal volume, the westbound flows of domestic freight won’ t necessarily decline in lockstep. This could result in an inversion of the norm, with westbound becoming the headhaul direction and eastbound the backhaul side of the main east-west lanes off the West Coast.

email: lgross @ intermodalindepth. com

California transload activity more stable than IPI

Percentage of imports leaving California via intermodal, intact( IPI) and transloaded

Percentage of import

70 %

60 %

50 % 50 20 %

40 %

30 %

20 %

Q2 2019 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 L Q1 2023 Q2 2024 Q1 2025

Manufacturing malaise clouds outlook for US industrial freight

By William B. Cassidy

A weakening outlook for US manufacturing combined with slowing imports is raising prospects of a further drop in already-soft truck freight demand.

Two US manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes( PMIs) indicated either mild contraction or incremental expansion in April. The weakening in US manufacturing came as imports and exports dropped amid uncertainty over US trade policy.

That has immediate implications for truck tonnage, as both truckload and less-than-truckload( LTL) are highly dependent on industrial freight.

In total, 59 % of for-hire truck tonnage in the US is sourced from domestic manufacturing plants, according to the US Census Bureau Commodity Flow Survey.

“ Manufacturing continued to flatline in April amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs.”

Intact Transload Total Intermodal

Source: Intermodal Association of North America; GTC © 2025 S & P Global

Ex-California intermodal share drops on transload decline

Containerized imports to California and leaving via intermodal, in millions of TEUs

www. joc. com

Truck volumes have dropped year over year on a monthly basis since March 2023, according to the Cass Freight Shipments Index. In March, the shipments index, which also includes some rail and parcel data, was down 5.3 % from a year earlier.

The US manufacturing PMI from the Institute of Supply Management( ISM) dropped 0.3 percentage points in April to 48.7, the second month of contraction for the PMI.

“ Demand and output weakened while input strengthened further, conditions that are not considered positive for economic growth,” Timothy R. Fiore, chair of the ISM business survey committee, said when releasing the ISM PMI report in early May.

In contrast, the S & P Global US manufacturing PMI was flat at 50.2, just above the breaking point between contraction and expansion. It has been above 50 for four months.

“ Manufacturing continued to flatline in April amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs,” said Chris Williamson, chief business

June 2, 2025 | Journal of Commerce 19