Peak Season Forecast

Special Report

expectations from the industry and from customers are both pessimistic.

Encouragingly, booking demand jumped in April, according to an index that has shown sluggish ordering of imports from China since January, but the increase may have been short-lived. The composite US index, based on data from customers of maritime intelligence provider Vizion, hit a 2026 high of 113 in the week of April 20 before slipping back below its base reading of 100 the following week, the most recent data available.

Meanwhile, fresh consumer indicators were grim. Overall inflation, as measured by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, rose to 3.8 % in April from 3.3 % in March.

“ Consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump.”

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to a new record low of 48.2 in May from 49.8 in April.

“ About one-third of consumers [ surveyed ] spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30 % mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump,” Joanne Hsu, research associate professor and director of the university’ s Survey of Consumers, said in her analysis of the latest index reading.

“ Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall,” Hsu added.

US retail sales in March, the most recent data available, increased 1.7 % month over month to $ 752.1 billion, according to the US Census Bureau, driven mainly by soaring gasoline prices, which do not contribute to retail merchandise imports.

Container lines on the eastbound trans-Pacific are nevertheless deploying or planning to deploy progressively more capacity through July than they did a year ago. Carriers deployed an estimated 1.97 million TEUs in May and will deploy 2.13 million TEUs in June and 2.18 million TEUs in July. That’ s up from 1.61 million TEUs, 1.98 million TEUs, and 2.08 million TEUs, respectively, in May – July 2025, according to ocean freight visibility provider eeSea.

Carriers are also blanking significantly less capacity, according to eeSea: 207,797 TEUs in May, 117,403 TEUs in June and 50,969 TEUs in July, down 54.1 %, 43.8 % and 73.7 %, respectively, from the same months last year.

The GPT forecasts imports at 13 US ports: Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York-New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville and Houston.

Trans-Pacific air freight adjusting to war-disrupted market

By Greg Knowler

The trans-Pacific air cargo market is slowly but surely adjusting to the disruption due to the war in the Middle East as capacity returns and supply-demand fundamentals are driven by seasonality and early May holidays rather than conflict-related factors, analysts say.

“ Capacity is coming back, [ and ] rates will come down, but not as quickly as they went up.”

Outbound tonnage from Asia-Pacific rose 3 % sequentially in the last week of April, with a boost from shipments ahead of May 1 Labor Day holidays in China that extend across several days, according to air freight analyst WorldACD Market Data. Those shipments coincided with flower imports from countries such as Colombia and Ecuador ahead of Mother’ s Day that boosted tonnage from Central and South America 19 % compared with the previous week

“ The worst may be behind us,” Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said of the war-related rate hikes.

Asia – US air freight rates skyrocketing amid Iran war

Spot air cargo rates from Hong Kong to Chicago, in USD per kg

USD per kg

$ 8

$ 7

$ 6

$ 3.5 $ 5

$ 4

$ 3 L Jul Jan 2025 Jul Nov, 20252 Jan 2026

16 Journal of Commerce | June 1, 2026 www. joc. com