Peak Season Forecast
Special Report
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China import bookings waning after brief spike
Index of import bookings from China to US compared with July 2025
Index Reading( 100 = July 2025)
120
100
80 100 60
414 40
20
0 L Dec Jan 2026 Feb Mar Apr Apr. 27, 2026
US East Coast US West Coast Total US
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“ Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in a statement issued along with the forecast.
Actual containerized US imports from Asia fell 4.3 % year over year in the first four months of the year, including a 6.4 % drop in April, the most recent month for which data is available, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S & P Global.
“ It’ s not like we have a traditional peak season anymore.”
Source: Vizion
traditional start of peak shipping season when retailers stock up ahead of the year-end holidays.
The NRF projects August imports at 2.19 million TEUs, down 5.5 % year over year; and September at 2.08 million TEUs, 1.3 % below the year prior. The fact that September— typically the heart of peak season— is forecast to be one of the weaker import months of 2026 is especially telling.
© 2026 S & P Global
A new low
If the GPT projection holds, this year would be the second in a row without the typical August through October peak season, following last year’ s tariff-linked disruptions.
“ It’ s not like we have a traditional peak season anymore,” said Serkan Kavas, executive vice president for imports at forwarder MTS Logistics, indicating that while“ a couple” months may see year-over-year growth, www. joc. com June 1, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 15