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“ This is a structural, not a cyclical, market inflection,” Croke said, pointing to the introduction of stricter electronic logging device( ELD) requirements in 2018 as a similar— albeit far less impactful— structural shock to truckload capacity.
“ This exodus of capacity because of all the enforcement is not only structural, it’ s permanent,” he said.“ I don’ t think these drivers are coming back.”
‘ Not intuitive’
In a typical truckload market, rates are governed by supply and demand conditions, with capacity waxing and waning as motor carriers add or sell off trucks in line with cyclical volume swings. But this spring, rates have skyrocketed despite relatively weak demand.
“ This exodus of capacity because of all the enforcement is not only structural, it’ s permanent.”
According to DAT, dry-van spot rates have consistently been 25 % to 30 % higher year over year since December, well before the war-induced diesel price surge in March. The Journal of Commerce average US shipper-paid spot rate reached $ 2.87 per mile in April, with year-over-year gains accelerating to 34 % from 25 % in March and 14.7 % in February.
That spike in spot market rates was“ counter-seasonal,” said Mazan Danaf, principal economist at Uber Freight.“ April is supposed to be the softest month of the year in most regions,” he said. Total North American surface freight volumes, as measured by the Cass Freight Shipments Index, declined on a year-over-year basis for the 39th consecutive month in April.
Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer at RXO, similarly described the current market as“ not intuitive,” adding that the sudden rate increase“ speaks to how much capacity has entered the market over the last 10 years or so that is now coming out.”
By mid-May, DAT’ s average replacement truckload contract rate was up 8 % from a year prior, a sign that new rates entering contract routing guides are beginning to rise more quickly.
“ If you take all this to its logical conclusion, it puts a new floor under contract rates,” Croke said.“ It’ s going to cost more to run a truck in the future.”
Most truckload carriers and shippers contacted by the Journal of Commerce in recent weeks have said their contract truckload rates are rising between 4 % and 6 % year over year.
“ We’ re starting to see contract rates increase,” Danaf said.“ Last year at this time they were up 1 % to 2 %, and now they’ re sitting at 5 % to 6 % higher year over year. As long as spot market pressure persists, we expect to see contract and intermodal rates increasing.”
Diesel fuel prices have been stuck above $ 5 per gallon since shortly after the Iran war began. Shutterstock. com
Proactive approach
Expecting higher rates to remain in place, and with limited ability to pass those costs through to consumers, shippers are looking to rein in the number of miles driven by their carriers, especially deadhead or empty miles, taking advantage of lower-cost intermodal, and more closely aligning their international and domestic moves.
Packaged meat producer Smithfield Foods, for example, expects to take another 1 million miles off the road in 2026 by optimizing its transportation network after eliminating 1 million road-miles last year.
“ We’ re still looking at hedging opportunities for diesel where we can, driving fewer miles,” CEO Charles Shane Smith said during an April 28 earnings call.“ We’ ve done lane consolidation, [ we’ re ] adding intermodal.”
Smithfield isn’ t the only one. According to Bob Daymon, head of client freight for Uber Freight, demand for network optimization is rising quickly, particularly among shippers facing“ considerably” higher-than-expected transportation costs after shrinking their inventories last year.“ There was a big push among many companies to reduce inventory in late 2025, with the expectation they could replenish in the first quarter,” Daymon told the Journal of Commerce.“ I see the queue filling up with requests for network optimization.”
Part of that optimization includes converting freight to intermodal, said Jenny Vander Zanden, COO of Breakthrough, a transportation technology firm specializing in fuel cost management.
“ A revisit with intermodal is needed to think about strategic road maps to transportation,” Vander Zanden
12 Journal of Commerce | June 1, 2026 www. joc. com