Cover Story

Diesel shock, regulatory crackdown restructuring US surface transport

By Ari Ashe and William B. Cassidy

The highest diesel fuel prices in nearly four years and one of the most severe regulatory crackdowns in recent memory are changing the inherent structure of surface transportation in the US.

Truckload rate hikes that began in December have accelerated in early 2026 as the war in Iran resulted in the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market and increased enforcement of federal regulations around non-domiciled and non-English speaking drivers continued to take trucks of the highway.

“ Diesel prices are putting pressure on costs across the supply chain,” Andrew Silvernail, CEO of International Paper, said during an earnings call April 30.“ Combined with an exceptionally tight freight market, this remains a strong headwind.”

“ Diesel prices are putting pressure on costs across the supply chain.”

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In the 11 weeks since the war began, US diesel prices have averaged $ 5.42 per gallon, up from $ 3.63 per gallon in the previous 11 weeks and the highest average for any 11-week period since August 2022, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.

Although crude oil prices would fall relatively quickly if the Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial vessel traffic, trucking industry analysts say diesel costs would take much longer to revert to pre-war levels.

Unlike consumers, who can, to an extent, dial back gasoline consumption in response to higher pricing, it’ s much more difficult for diesel-using truckers and farmers to make fewer trips or plow fewer acres. Retailers, in turn, have little choice but to pony up when transportation costs rise to ensure goods are on the shelves.

As a consumer,“ when I go to Walmart, I need my stuff; I don’ t care if diesel prices are going higher,” Keith Prather, managing director at Armada Corporate Intelligence, told the Journal of Commerce.“ I don’ t think diesel prices are going to snap back.”

And because the reduction in over-the-road capacity has been driven by tighter commercial driver licensing regulations, rather than underlying demand fundamentals, it is likely more lasting, according to Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics. www. joc. com June 1, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 11