January 5, 2026 | Page 78

Surface Transportation 2026 Annual Review & Outlook
Executive Commentary
“ The combination of a prolonged downturn and sudden enforcement could create a system shock.”
Jeffrey Tucker
“ Support for higher industry standards will level the playing field for rule-abiding operators by eliminating carriers that cut corners and operate illegally.”
Ken Kellaway
and added uncertainty. A major consequence has been the oversupply of transportation assets, especially chassis and other intermodal equipment, as fleet expansions outpaced demand.
With modest growth expected in 2026, the industry is shifting focus from anticipating a rebound to strategically recalibrating— optimizing assets, managing costs and building resilience amid ongoing volatility. Strategic investments must be designed to deliver greater value to customers— enhancing operations to support evolving supply chain needs, attracting top-tier talent and deploying advanced technologies that maximize efficiency, reliability and service quality.
In today’ s uncertain economic climate, offering smarter tools and flexible solutions that improve operational resilience will help customers navigate volatility. Specific pricing initiatives can make it more economical for trucking companies and beneficial cargo owners to maintain larger chassis fleets that can be leveraged during surges in port activity. Artificial intelligence can be used to analyze thousands of vendor invoices monthly, ensuring optimal quality, cost-efficiency and service.
Investing to modernize chassis fleets will reinforce commitment to reliable, high-performance equipment. Developing new solutions that meet evolving customer needs, adapt to market shifts, and drive cost efficiencies will
keep partners competitive— even in challenging economic conditions.
As we plan for 2026, TRAC is energized by the opportunities ahead and grateful to our customers, employees and partners for their continued support as we work together to shape the future of intermodal growth.
Tucker Company Worldwide
Jeffrey Tucker
President & CEO www. tuckerco. com
Our greatest capacity crises, COVID aside, have each been triggered by a regulatory jolt. President George W. Bush’ s 2003 tax credit was followed by new hours-ofservice rules in 2004, then the electronic logging device mandate in 2017 – 2018. We may be approaching another one.
In 2025, compliance professionals focused on fraud, security and the last“ wild west” of global supply chains: ground transport operations. Airlines, air-cargo operators, global forwarders, carriers and 3PLs all faced scrutiny for gaps in freight oversight. For life science shippers, US GDP certification rolled out
in the spring, followed by TAPA’ s Tier 1 TSR for high-value goods.
Transport providers routinely broker freight to outside parties, yet little attention had been paid to which party actually moved the freight or whether it was qualified and controlled. In highvalue cargo,“ asset-based” has never guaranteed“ appropriate, safe or secure.” These new standards are shrinking the pool of compliant entities.
Regulatory shifts in the driver workforce could amplify impact. Efforts to remove non-domiciled commercial drivers’ license holders could cut 6 % of drivers, and English language proficiency tests at roadside inspections— backed by USDOT enforcement including withheld funds— could further reduce capacity.
All this is unfolding as the trucking market contracts after three and a half years of freight recession— the longest since deregulation. The combination of a prolonged downturn and sudden enforcement could create a system shock, pushing out weaker or noncompliant capacity just as equilibrium nears, potentially driving higher rates and renewed demand.
Add in a global supply chain adjusting to a new tariff-driven world order, and the outlook is clear: 2025 may have brought volatility and correction, but 2026 and beyond could test the industry’ s resilience yet again.
RoadOne
Ken Kellaway
President & CEO www. roadone. com
We are navigating one of the most challenging freight markets in recent memory. The prolonged freight slump has tested every part of our operation, forcing us to adapt quickly to shifting market forces while maintaining our commitment to customers and employees.
This freight recession, now stretching over multiple years, has taken a heavy toll on us, the industry, and many of our competitors. Regulatory pressures have added to the strain as new compliance requirements around safety, driver qualifications and emissions diminish capacity— particularly among smaller carriers. In the short term, this tightening capacity offers some rate stability, but it raises costs and complexity, with insurance and other fixed costs still climbing. Litigation exposure, nuclear verdicts and theft risks have pushed insurance premiums higher. Heavy investment in technology, training and safety programs mitigate these risks, but the financial burden is substantial and growing.
Adding to the uncertainty, global sourcing patterns remain volatile due to tariff disputes and shifting trade policies. Customers adjust their supply chains, often with little warning, which disrupts freight flows and driver planning, complicating balance capacity and pricing. Bankruptcies and closures have accelerated as low rates, rising costs and soft volumes squeeze margins. As a privately held carrier, RoadOne has taken a longer-term view of managing cash flow carefully and prioritizing operational resilience over short-term gains— but the market remains unforgiving. Consolidation is reshaping the landscape, and survival increasingly depends on scale, financial discipline and strong customer partnerships.
Support for higher industry standards will level the playing field for rule-abiding operators by eliminating carriers that cut corners and operate illegally. Despite industry headwinds, the focus must remain on efficiency, strategic partnerships and long-term stability to adapt and endure for long-term success.
To our core customers who rely on RoadOne for resilience— we sincerely appreciate your partnership and continued support during these challenging times. Together, we will continue to grow and overcome future challenges for many years to come!
76 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com