Executive Commentary |
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industry. Many importers are taking a cautious approach, keeping volumes low until there’ s more clarity around the economy, tariffs and trade policy. Retail demand remains steady but is largely centered on cost-conscious, valuedriven products as inflation continues to influence consumer behavior.
Lower import volumes have pushed drayage rates down as customers look for ways to reduce overall supply chain costs. At the same time, shifting tariffs are changing points of entry, requiring providers to adapt quickly to new routing patterns and regional demand. Together, these factors have underscored the importance of agility and responsiveness within the 3PL landscape.
With customers closely monitoring transportation spend, service quality and continuous improvement have become top priorities for maintaining efficiency and reliability. Asset utilization has also grown increasingly important, with many carriers and operators aligning their fleets to current volumes while preserving flexibility to scale as demand rebounds.
Diversification remains a key differentiator. Providers with integrated service offerings and strong financial foundations are better positioned to withstand market fluctuations and capture opportunities as freight volumes recover.
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Oliver Wyman |
“ The current situation is unsustainable and unjust for an industry that plays a critical role in our supply chain.”
Donna Lemm
“ A third of active tractors are operated by fleets of less than ten trucks, while large fleet owners control only 8 % of the market.”
Adriene Bailey
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IMC Logistics
Donna Lemm
CCO www. imcc. com
In the trucking industry, success is defined by meeting customers’ delivery expectations— on time, every time. Achieving this requires substantial resources, labor and significant financial investment. Those that have weathered the storm have financial resources and been able to create efficiencies and diversify in the market; but it is also important to consider the broader impact on the motor carrier community.
Our industry has faced unpredictable starts and stops. Besides these challenges, motor carriers have also faced pressure to lower freight rates, with rates dropping back to levels seen before the pandemic. This decline has occurred without regard to rising truck and labor costs, escalating insurance premiums and greater liability. The current situation is unsustainable and unjust for an industry that plays a critical role in our supply chain.
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Motor carriers are the lifeblood of the supply chain. Every delivery involves a truck and a driver. Acknowledging carrier safety, performance, technology and expertise is key to a successful shipment. Many have forgotten how critical the first and last mile are to the success of delivering inventory to their customers. These short-term choices have had a dramatic impact on our industry with too many quality service providers failing to survive the slump and falling victim to an industry that has become commoditized. Expecting consistent performance while continually slashing rates leads to a scenario where no one wins— drivers struggle to earn a living, and companies find it difficult to invest in their workforce and infrastructure to serve customers effectively. Our industry relies upon a successful orchestration of players, and nothing happens without a valued trucking partner. Let’ s lift each other up, remember the value we all bring to the table, and work together for a prosperous 2026 for all. |
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Adriene Bailey
Partner www. oliverwyman. com
Since the peak of the COVID- 19 supply chain crisis, over-theroad trucking prices in the US have declined steadily, even as labor and input costs rise. According to Oliver Wyman’ s 2025 Shipper Survey, an unusual amount of rail intermodal lanes is priced above truck rates currently, inhibiting conversions from truck to rail. This suggests that many owner-operators / small fleets are maintaining pricing power for longer than usual. A third of active tractors are operated by fleets of less than ten trucks, while large fleet owners control only 8 % of the market.
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“ With modest growth expected in 2026, the industry is shifting focus from anticipating a rebound to strategically recalibrating.”
Dan Walsh
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The pandemic led to a surge of new entrants at the small end of the market. High rates and government assistance created a cash influx that enabled owner-operators to purchase new equipment. Although small trucking firms are typically short-lived, there is value even at lower rates in keeping paid-off trucks operational, preserving excess market supply: Owner-operators who were able to eliminate equipment debt incur incremental costs around $ 0.80 per mile, making them competitive against current market rates of approximately $ 1.72.
The rise of digital freight brokers is enhancing access to available freight, further empowering owner-operators in a competitive market. We think it is unlikely that these trucks owned by smaller operators will exit the market soon, despite enforcement of current truck driving regulations and more stringent regulations coming into play. Railroads will need to consider whether
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greater market flexibility will be required to keep freight on rail through this extended period of lower trucking rates.
TRAC Intermodal
Dan Walsh
President & CEO www. tracintermodal. com
The freight industry has faced persistent challenges since the pandemic boom, struggling with overcapacity, elevated inventory levels and rising interest rates driven by rapid e-commerce growth and aggressive post- COVID expansion strategies. More recently, shifting tariff policies and rising protectionism have disrupted trade routes
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