Two days of rain

By Ted Prince

In 1948, Gerald Hern, sports editor of the Boston Post, composed a brief poem describing the Boston Braves’ pitching enroute to the 1948 National League Pennant.

First we’ ll use Spahn then we’ ll use Sain Then an off day, followed by rain Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain And followed, we hope, by two days of rain

Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain won 39 of the Braves’ 91 victories that year. However, it was common to have a one-two punch at the top of a team’ s pitching rotation.

Intermodal has a similar duality: international and domestic— primarily dry 40- and 53-foot containers, respectively. While intermodal has a plethora of markets and equipment, the two segments have been carrying the industry for decades to constant new heights. They are also closely correlated in that a great deal of the domestic market is import cargo that was transloaded on the west coast for movement inland.

Hern’ s work comes to mind when thinking about intermodal’ s performance in 2025 and its prospects for 2026. Unlike the hoped for two days of good rain, the industry has endured four years of painful rain since the halcyon volumes of 2021, the“ good old days” of the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are a lot of theories explaining the current freight“ recession,” but there is no disputing that decreased demand, cutthroat competition and plummeting rates have occurred simultaneously with inflationary cost components. As a result, intermodal has frequently found itself as a surface freight alternative that is slower and more expensive than trucking.

And while there were some green shoots in 2024, the industry has been hoping for a second-half recovery— that has failed to materialize— in each of the past three years. The same seems true for 2026.

As we look forward, we need to consider supply and demand drivers.

Affordability has taken a place of prominence in our political lexicon. As the cost of food and housing rise, discretionary income for other consumer products has shriveled and reduced demand. The same goes for increasing credit card, car and student loan debt.

Regardless of mortgage rates, there are longterm limitations on housing starts. This can further reduce consumer demand because so many purchases— e. g., furniture, home electronics, etc.— are often associated with new homes. And although seven-year car loans have become more common,

I don’ t believe 50-year home mortgages will have the same penetration.

With demand problematic, intermodal success will probably rely on supply changes. Many contend that the demand during the early days of COVID-19 created excess capacity that the truck market is still trying to absorb. However, it is unclear whether there was really an increase in overall capacity, or just realignment as many truckers decided to go out on their own.

Regardless, there were a number of carriers that acquired capacity at historically high prices and must keep operating to just make their payments. The normal culling of unprofitable capacity was precluded by this inability to exit the market, ensuring a never-ending supply of zombie truckers. This capacity is getting older and more expensive to operate.

Nevertheless, there is a feeling( or hope?) that 2026 will finally see marginal carriers leave the market and rate stability restored.

The environmental green benefits of intermodal are not a priority for the current administration, so economic green will be paramount. Most likely that would come from increased regulatory oversight. Enhanced enforcement on non-domiciled commercial driver’ s licenses is reducing driver supply. And there is still the unknown of hacked electronic logging devices allowing for illegal hours of service.

What is unclear is whether these initiatives will impact truckload and drayage carriers equally, or whether one segment will suffer disproportionate opprobrium. If it is the former, intermodal will be advantaged; however, if it is the latter, maybe not. The former would be a rising tide that would raise all intermodal ships, whereas the latter could see the further ascendance of bimodal operations with integrated drayage overseen by robust safety regimens.

In an attempt to increase demand, we can expect major players to assume prominent roles. Railroads and bimodals will seek to deploy equipment that has been stored for years. Ocean carriers will continue to consider their inland options. Finally, ports may become more involved as they explore inland options to attract more discretionary cargo.

There are no historical comparisons for the last five years. It is unclear when the market will turn, but when it does, the recovery will follow Ernest Hemingway’ s description:“ Gradually, then suddenly.” We can then hope for the sun also to rise on intermodal.

email: ted @ tricitiesintermodal. com

Unlike the hoped for two days of good rain, the industry has endured four years of painful rain.

January 5, 2026 | Page 71

Two days of rain