Surface Transportation 2026 Annual Review & Outlook

Domestic intermodal to benefit from new lanes, faster service

The proposed UP-NS merger would create the first single-line transcontinental US railroad. Just dance / Shutterstock. com

By Ari Ashe

The big picture: The defining storyline of 2026 for North American intermodal rail will be how federal regulators respond to the proposed merger of Union Pacific Railroad( UP) and Norfolk Southern Railway( NS). The deal has already pushed competing railroads to launch new intermodal lanes and accelerate transit times, ripple effects that could set the stage for measurable volume gains, even without a spike in demand.

A look back: The proposed $ 85 billion UP-NS transaction would create the first single-line transcontinental US railroad. And before regulators even had a chance to assess the potential competitive effects of the deal, the July 29 announcement triggered similar moves from the other US Class I railroads. Just three weeks later, BNSF Railway and CSX Transportation unveiled new“ coast-to-coast” long-haul lanes— including Los Angeles – Charlotte, North Carolina; Los Angeles – Jacksonville, Florida; and Phoenix – Atlanta— along with faster transit times on nine additional routes between Los Angeles and the Ohio Valley and US Northeast. The UP-NS deal also resulted in a leadership shakeup at CSX. The board fired CEO Joe Hinrichs amid pressure from an activist investor demanding the eastern railroad pursue its own merger with BNSF, Canadian National Railway or Canadian Pacific Kansas City. UP and NS launched their first joint intermodal service, a route that connects the US West Coast, Mexico and Texas with Louisville, in October. During contract bid season, UP captured meaningful market share from its West Coast competitor, BNSF, boosting volumes for Hub Group and Schneider National and dragging J. B. Hunt’ s shipment counts lower. It was a year of posturing, positioning and railroads racing not to be left behind.

A look ahead: Domestic intermodal could see further growth this year— total 53-foot volumes rose 3.5 % year over year through October, according to the Intermodal Association of North America( IANA)— thanks to the new lanes and improved transit times introduced in 2025, rather than a macroeconomic demand catalyst. Most shippers that spoke with the Journal of Commerce believe rates in early first-quarter intermodal contracts will be mostly flat compared with the previous year, with some increases on outbound lanes from the West Coast. After losing market share, J. B. Hunt could become more aggressive in its pricing, especially during peak season. And as J. B. Hunt shifts freight onto BNSF-CSX joint services, Hub Group and Swift Intermodal will compete for new slots on NS trains.

Additional BNSF-CSX single-line opportunities to the Northeast will open up when double-stacking service through Baltimore commences in the spring. If this prompts J. B. Hunt to shift more of its volumes to CSX, it will create even more opportunities for Hub Group and Swift. The US Surface Transportation Board( STB) likely won’ t issue its final decision on the UP-NS transaction until 2027, but one former board member thinks regulators are“ leaning more toward approval.” Citing President Donald Trump’ s influence and the political alignment of the current board— with a third Republican pending Senate confirmation and just one Democrat— Daniel Elliott III, who served two nonconsecutive terms as STB chairman between 2009 and 2017, said it will be“ very difficult” for members to vote against the merger if the administration continues to support it publicly.

The next inflection: New lanes and faster service will lift volumes, but true organic expansion depends on a recovery in the truckload market. Some shippers only increase their use of intermodal rail when they are struggling to secure over-the-road capacity. Until US manufacturing output and other major sources of surface freight like new home construction improve and truckload capacity tightens, intermodal volumes and rates will grow only modestly.

email: ari. ashe @ spglobal. com

Domestic intermodal grows in 26 of 27 months through October

North American domestic intermodal rail volume, 53-foot containers and trailers

813,141

750,000

650,000 700,000

650,000

January April L July October November

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Source: Intermodal Association of North America

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68 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com