Annual Review & Outlook 2026 Cover Story
US trucking volumes tick up just 0.4 % through August
For-Hire Trucking Ton-Mile Index, seasonally adjusted
Index Reading( 100 = 2017)
110
105
100 100 95
90
85
L
80 L 2020 2022 2024
Notes: Shaded area indicates US recession; MSU ' s For-Hire Trucking Ton-Mile Index is based on data from the Fed, Census Bureau, BEA and BLS analyzed by Jason Miller, PhD
Source: Michigan State University( MSU) © 2026 S & P Global
University supply chain professor, told the Journal of Commerce. Interest rates need to drop to allow house buyers to unlock lower financing, he said.
Keith Prather, co-founder and managing partner of consultancy Armada Corporate Intelligence, has a more positive outlook, but doesn’ t expect an immediate jolt to the economy.
“ There are a lot of different moving parts in the US economy right now,” Prather said. He pointed to the reshoring of manufacturing in the US as a trend that will— eventually— create more domestic freight demand, though not in the short-term.
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A familiar feeling
The weakening demand indicators and downbeat freight forecasts suggest a first half of 2026 that resembles much of 2025. US trucking volumes, as measured by the Michigan State University for-hire trucking ton-mile index, inched up just 0.4 % in the first eight months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.
The supply-demand imbalance in trucking seemed to become more punishing as 2025 progressed, with little sign of a resolution or turning point ahead.
“ We really thought toward the end of last year, 2024, that we had reached an equilibrium,” said Jeff Tucker, CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide, the largest family-owned US freight brokerage.“ We felt 2025 showed some promise..., [ but ] nobody saw the breadth and depth of the impact of the tariff regime.”
Despite the slump, intermodal volume has been resilient. Domestic container volume, excluding trailers, rose 3.5 % year over year between January and October, while international intermodal increased 4.3 % during the same period, according to the Intermodal Association of North America( IANA).
Intermodal demand in 2026, though, will continue to be heavily tied to tariffs, trucking and ports. There is a www. joc. com January 5, 2026 | Journal of Commerce 9