Cover Story
2026 Annual Review & Outlook
a picture that is no longer exclusive to low-income Americans. The latest US unemployment numbers from the US Labor Department show hiring expanded in October, but at a slower pace, while more workers are staying put in their current roles.
As economists question whether the near-unstoppable US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight is showing signs of sputtering. New US manufacturing orders in November fell to their lowest point since May, according to the US manufacturing ISM.
‘ Filled with unsold stock’
Stephan Zirwes / Getty Images
A Conference Board survey on Nov. 22 revealed that falling US consumer confidence had reached its lowest since April, when the US began its tariff onslaught.
“ Manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S & P Global.“ For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data was available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.”
Another major driver of freight demand— housing— isn’ t looking too good, either. Privately owned housing starts were down 11.1 % year over year in August, the latest month for which data is available from the US Census Bureau following the US government shutdown.
The US economy in 2026“ entirely hinges on the housing industrial complex unlocking itself, and I don’ t see that happening quickly,” Jason Miller, a Michigan State
US air cargo growth is declining, with volumes down on a year-over-year basis for six straight months through October, according to the International Air Transport Association. Intermodal growth, meanwhile, has notably fared well, rising in the mid-single digits.
Importantly, and despite negative headlines on unemployment and retail confidence, economists expect the US economy to muster on, most likely avoiding a recession. US real gross domestic product( GDP) will grow 2.2 % in 2026 after climbing 2 % in 2025 and 2.8 % in 2024, according to economists from S & P Global, the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.
But while the US economy expands, US inventory levels aren’ t. And following months of frontloading imports, US retailers and other importers are replenishing gingerly. US inventory levels mildly expanded in November, according to the Logistics Managers Index. But companies have plenty of incentives to keep inventories lean, as the index shows that carrying costs have been increasing monthly since the beginning of 2025.
Attention is focused on US consumers as they show signs of cutting back amid stubborn inflation. The major consumer pricing indicators— via the University of Michigan’ s index and the Consumer Board’ survey— paint a picture of an increasingly jittery consumer,
8 Journal of Commerce | January 5, 2026 www. joc. com